by Justin Cherot
Who's Better?
When the Minnesota Timberwolves came to DC and destroyed the Wizards this past Sunday, we got the chance to look at two of the best young point guards in the NBA–Ricky Rubio and John Wall–go head to head. As enamored as the Wizards were to win the lottery in 2010 to get Wall, a year earlier Rubio could have fallen into their lap… but anytime you have the chance to acquire two overvalued role-players in Mike Miller and Randy Foye, you have to do it, right?
The point is, if Wizards GM Ernie Grunfeld could hop in the Delorean (not to get off subject, but why is Back to the Future being shown so often on HBO? Is Michael J. Fox on his death bed?) and shoot himself from distance with a tranquilizer dart right in the neck, would he step in and nix the trade prior to the draft? The bigger, less abstract question obviously is would you rather have Rubio or Wall leading your team?
Good question: let’s break it down.
The Video
Wall
Rubio
The winner of this category really depends on the audience.
If this competition is akin to a Real World audition tape, it has to be Wall with all the dunking, ball-handling and dougie-ing, right? He looks like he has damn near the full package. He even looks like he can shoot! The music also adds to the presentation value. Sign this guy up! He and Puck would be awesome roomies! Seriously though, his ability to get wherever he wants to get on the court is what sticks out to me.
Of course, if I’m a high school basketball coach (hey, don’t rule it out, it is on my bucket list!), I want my kids watching the Rubio vid. His ability to pass the ball as a 21-year-old rookie is unfair. He already is the best cross-court passer in the NBA, as you’ve undoubtedly seen millions of times already on Sportscenter. And as a man with facial hair, I like his facial hair.
Edge: Wall, if only because these videos make Rubio look like a child prodigy and Wall look like a mutant amongst humans.
The Injection:
Imagine each one of these guys as medicine and they are advertised as “The Cure.” Based upon watching their results so far, which one is “working” better?
We know the Wizards were shot in the arm in November of 2010 with Wall, and after one full working year it doesn’t look like they’ve gotten much better. Now, you can make the argument that this particular team has terminal cancer and wasn’t going to make it anyway, but at the very least the medication is supposed to give hope, right? A 1-8 start suggests otherwise, and chances are the Wizards a year from now will look a lot different from a personnel standpoint. Also, Wall will take an early lead over Rubio in the “get my coach fired” category.
Meanwhile, the Wolves were promised the medicine two years ago, but there was a slight problem with the importing process. However, when they finally got the Rubio Vaccine, you could see marked changes. Suddenly, the T’Wolves are the hottest visiting team ticket not named the Miami Heat, Los Angeles Clippers or Los Angeles Lakers, and will undoubtedly win almost every NBA Fan Night vote. From the looks of it, his teammates LOVE playing with him, and he’s brought out the best in all of them… even the incumbent starting point guard Luke Ridnour, who just might be playing the best basketball of his career even as the young kid will inevitably unseat him as the starter. Sure, they’re 3-7, but they’ve been in just about every single game. They might not be a playoff team this season, but I’d be shocked if they weren’t in the playoffs by next season as long as Kevin Love stays and doesn’t go to the Dallas Mavericks to try to help them three-peat (I’m only half-serious, though I don’t know about which half).
Edge: Rubio. Now, before you go saying the T’Wolves have way more talent, think about this: the Wizards won more games than Minnesota last year. With the addition of Rubio, Minnesota will probably win more games than they did all of last year. In 16 less games.
The Weakness:
Both of these guys, believe it or not, have the same major flaw, which in the past was a huge no-no for me liking a player (but hey, times change): neither of these guys is really a shooter.
Rubio may be shooting healthy percentages (about 47% from the field AND from three), but his shooting numbers across the ocean were AWFUL, which can lead to one of two conclusions: either a) Rubio has REALLY worked on his stroke (plausible), or b) these stats are a blip similar to the way Brandon Jennings came into the league (unfortunately, more plausible). Once his opponents acquire more tape, I truly believe the shooting percentage is going to plummet. He’s a decent stand still shooter, but his shooting off the dribble looks a little awkward. This is probably fixable.
After watching Wall almost break the shot clock with a step-back three a couple of nights ago, along with the fact that he gets the Rondo treatment every night, I’m not convinced his jumper is fixable. Struggling is one thing, 34% from the field is something entirely different. In his defense, that stat is probably inflated (or deflated) by the fact that he’s engulfed in an abyss where horrible-shot-taking is contagious (The Verizon Center), but he just flat out cannot shoot.
I didn’t mention it for either guy, but now I am: at their young age both of these cats struggle with turnovers. But the great point guards (Jason Kidd, Isiah Thomas, Chris Paul to name a few) struggled as young court generals, too. Not a big concern… unless three years from now they’re still playing with Russell Westbrookless abandon.
Edge: Rubio. If you disagree, please watch a Wizards’ game.
The Ceiling:
I posted the “Wall or Rubio” question on my Facebook page yesterday, and I got an interesting response from my boy Hakeem:
“Rubio’s ceiling…Jason Kidd (Obviously great). John Wall’s ceiling… Chris Paul with Derrick Rose athleticism. I think you have a potential to go further with the latter.”
I think Hak nailed it. Rubio is like a Steve Nash/Kidd hybrid, and as far as point guards go, there’s not much better. But, in terms of court vision, Paul is right there with Nash and Kidd, and if you add Rose’s DNA… I really don’t know if there IS a ceiling for that kind of combination. Physically.
But, there’s one huge intangible that I’m not sure if Wall has… yet. Paul, Rose, Kidd and, to a lesser extent, Nash all HATE losing. It seems like they take it personally. Rubio seems like the type to push it to the limit, go balls to the wall, and do any other sort of cliche that is synonymous with not wanting to lose.
I don’t really see that with Wall… yet. I see some signs that losing bothers him, but not like the other guys. Maybe he needs to experience the losing to get to that point, but normally guys come into the league like that. I mean, look at Tim Tebow!
(Damnit! I promised myself not to get caught up in the hype, but if you’re gambling, take the Broncos +13.5. I’m not sure if they win, but they will cover.)
Still, if Wall develops that trait, there’s no questioning whose ceiling is higher. Rubio is probably a double-digit assist guy for the next decade, but a peak season from Wall could look like this: 25-12-7 with three steals and a block and a half.
Edge: Wall
The Tiebreaker
It really comes down to the eye test, because if it came down to pure basketball ability and statistics, anybody in their right mind would want Wall. But in the age of Tebow, where intangibles are the new touchdown to interception ratio, the value of Rubio is immeasurable unless categories like “Happy Teammates” and “Renewed Excitement Level” become ESPN Next Level stats.
At the end of the day, give me Rubes. And pray for him… because the Justin Cherot Kiss of Death is in play.
Pick and Pop 