Who's Better?

When the Minnesota Timberwolves came to DC and destroyed the Wizards this past Sunday, we got the chance to look at two of the best young point guards in the NBA–Ricky Rubio and John Wall–go head to head.  As enamored as the Wizards were to win the lottery in 2010 to get Wall, a year earlier Rubio could have fallen into their lap… but anytime you have the chance to acquire two overvalued role-players in Mike Miller and Randy Foye, you have to do it, right?

The point is, if Wizards GM Ernie Grunfeld could hop in the Delorean (not to get off subject, but why is Back to the Future being shown so often on HBO?  Is Michael J. Fox on his death bed?) and shoot himself from distance with a tranquilizer dart right in the neck, would he step in and nix the trade prior to the draft?  The bigger, less abstract question obviously is would you rather have Rubio or Wall leading your team?

Good question: let’s break it down.

The Video

Wall

Rubio

The winner of this category really depends on the audience.

If this competition is akin to a Real World audition tape, it has to be Wall with all the dunking, ball-handling and dougie-ing, right?  He looks like he has damn near the full package.  He even looks like he can shoot!  The music also adds to the presentation value.  Sign this guy up!  He and Puck would be awesome roomies!  Seriously though, his ability to get wherever he wants to get on the court is what sticks out to me.

Of course, if I’m a high school basketball coach (hey, don’t rule it out, it is on my bucket list!), I want my kids watching the Rubio vid.  His ability to pass the ball as a 21-year-old rookie is unfair.  He already is the best cross-court passer in the NBA, as you’ve undoubtedly seen millions of times already on Sportscenter.  And as a man with facial hair, I like his facial hair. 

Edge: Wall, if only because these videos make Rubio look like a child prodigy and Wall look like a mutant amongst humans.

The Injection:

Imagine each one of these guys as medicine and they are advertised as “The Cure.”  Based upon watching their results so far, which one is “working” better?

We know the Wizards were shot in the arm in November of 2010 with Wall, and after one full working year it doesn’t look like they’ve gotten much better.  Now, you can make the argument that this particular team has terminal cancer and wasn’t going to make it anyway, but at the very least the medication is supposed to give hope, right?  A 1-8 start suggests otherwise, and chances are the Wizards a year from now will look a lot different from a personnel standpoint.  Also, Wall will take an early lead over Rubio in the “get my coach fired” category. 

Meanwhile, the Wolves were promised the medicine two years ago, but there was a slight problem with the importing process.  However, when they finally got the Rubio Vaccine, you could see marked changes.  Suddenly, the T’Wolves are the hottest visiting team ticket not named the Miami Heat, Los Angeles Clippers or Los Angeles Lakers, and will undoubtedly win almost every NBA Fan Night vote.  From the looks of it, his teammates LOVE playing with him, and he’s brought out the best in all of them… even the incumbent starting point guard Luke Ridnour, who just might be playing the best basketball of his career even as the young kid will inevitably unseat him as the starter.  Sure, they’re 3-7, but they’ve been in just about every single game.  They might not be a playoff team this season, but I’d be shocked if they weren’t in the playoffs by next season as long as Kevin Love stays and doesn’t go to the Dallas Mavericks to try to help them three-peat (I’m only half-serious, though I don’t know about which half). 

Edge: Rubio.  Now, before you go saying the T’Wolves have way more talent, think about this: the Wizards won more games than Minnesota last year.  With the addition of Rubio, Minnesota will probably win more games than they did all of last year.  In 16 less games.

The Weakness:

Both of these guys, believe it or not, have the same major flaw, which in the past was a huge no-no for me liking a player (but hey, times change): neither of these guys is really a shooter. 

Rubio may be shooting healthy percentages (about 47% from the field AND from three), but his shooting numbers across the ocean were AWFUL, which can lead to one of two conclusions: either a) Rubio has REALLY worked on his stroke (plausible), or b) these stats are a blip similar to the way Brandon Jennings came into the league (unfortunately, more plausible).  Once his opponents acquire more tape, I truly believe the shooting percentage is going to plummet.  He’s a decent stand still shooter, but his shooting off the dribble looks a little awkward.  This is probably fixable. 

After watching Wall almost break the shot clock with a step-back three a couple of nights ago, along with the fact that he gets the Rondo treatment every night, I’m not convinced his jumper is fixable.  Struggling is one thing, 34% from the field is something entirely different.  In his defense, that stat is probably inflated (or deflated) by the fact that he’s engulfed in an abyss where horrible-shot-taking is contagious (The Verizon Center), but he just flat out cannot shoot.

I didn’t mention it for either guy, but now I am: at their young age both of these cats struggle with turnovers.  But the great point guards (Jason Kidd, Isiah Thomas, Chris Paul to name a few) struggled as young court generals, too.  Not a big concern… unless three years from now they’re still playing with Russell Westbrookless abandon.   

Edge: Rubio.  If you disagree, please watch a Wizards’ game.  

The Ceiling:

I posted the “Wall or Rubio” question on my Facebook page yesterday, and I got an interesting response from my boy Hakeem:

“Rubio’s ceiling…Jason Kidd (Obviously great). John Wall’s ceiling… Chris Paul with Derrick Rose athleticism. I think you have a potential to go further with the latter.”

I think Hak nailed it.  Rubio is like a Steve Nash/Kidd hybrid, and as far as point guards go, there’s not much better.  But, in terms of court vision, Paul is right there with Nash and Kidd, and if you add Rose’s DNA… I really don’t know if there IS a ceiling for that kind of combination.  Physically.

But, there’s one huge intangible that I’m not sure if Wall has… yet.  Paul, Rose, Kidd and, to a lesser extent, Nash all HATE losing.  It seems like they take it personally.  Rubio seems like the type to push it to the limit, go balls to the wall, and do any other sort of cliche that is synonymous with not wanting to lose.

I don’t really see that with Wall… yet.  I see some signs that losing bothers him, but not like the other guys.  Maybe he needs to experience the losing to get to that point, but normally guys come into the league like that.  I mean, look at Tim Tebow!

(Damnit!  I promised myself not to get caught up in the hype, but if you’re gambling, take the Broncos +13.5.  I’m not sure if they win, but they will cover.)

Still, if Wall develops that trait, there’s no questioning whose ceiling is higher.  Rubio is probably a double-digit assist guy for the next decade, but a peak season from Wall could look like this: 25-12-7 with three steals and a block and a half.

Edge: Wall

The Tiebreaker

It really comes down to the eye test, because if it came down to pure basketball ability and statistics, anybody in their right mind would want Wall.  But in the age of Tebow, where intangibles are the new touchdown to interception ratio,  the value of Rubio is immeasurable unless categories like “Happy Teammates” and “Renewed Excitement Level” become ESPN Next Level stats.

At the end of the day, give me Rubes.  And pray for him… because the Justin Cherot Kiss of Death is in play. 

Still waiting on my re-tweet, Chris Paul. Still waiting... from Bleacher Report.

by Justin Cherot

CP3 (9:11 PM): WoW

TheJustinCherot (9:13 PM): Dude I didn’t know you played [World] of Warcraft!!!

Chris Paul hasn’t re-tweeted me yet, and I don’t expect him to for two reasons: 1) I accidentally tweeted “War of Warcraft”, a game that doesn’t exist and, 2) I would think he has more important things on his mind, like making a Kill Bill-like revenge list on every owner who voted to shoot the trade down (props to Adrian Wojnarowski who broke the initial story).

“WoW” is right.

I guess I understand why the owners’ panties are all in a bunch.  I mean, the NBA basically halted operations for five months–149 days to be exact–because the small market teams wanted some semblance of competitive balance (or, at the core, a guaranteed profit).  The NBA, who owns the New Orleans Hornets temporarily, might have been sending mixed signals by letting a trade if this magnitude go through. 

“Yeah, 22 of 30 lost money last year, but that doesn’t mean we can’t flip the best asset from one of those 22 teams to one of the eight teams that actually profited… right???” 

But honestly, the owners who did reject this deal need to relax.  Whether it’s today, tomorrow or next July 1st, Paul is dipping anyway, so that being the case, this trade would have been an NBA rarity…

EVERYONE WOULD HAVE WON!!!

Obviously, the Los Angeles Lakers would have gone from having a rotation of D-League caliber point guards (sorry Derek Fisher and Steve Blake but even your parents would agree with me) to arguably the best point guard in the league who could undoubtedly extend Kobe Bryant’s career.  Upgrade is an understatement.  But look at the other parties: New Orleans would have received a combined 43 points per game between Kevin Martin and Luis Scola, not to mention a potential sleeper at point guard in Goran Dragic AND a mid first round pick.  The Houston Rockets, the “loser”, would have gotten Pau Gasol, who just a year and a half ago was the undisputed best four man in the NBA (that title has since been handed back to Dirk Nowitzki, but you knew that). 

So yes, while I understand the ill-timing and awkward nature of this trade right out of a lockout, the owners need to just quit crying and let this one go through.  You can cry “small market” this and “competitive balance” that, but at the end of the day, the NBA dropped the ball by succumbing to the owners’ demands. 

WoW.

This summer should have been awesome.  Don’t get me wrong: in many ways it was.  After all, I did become a homeowner with a certified Man Cave that’s so awesome it deserves capital letters.  Sure, I had to deal with everything that comes along with home ownership (mowing, garden cultivating, painting, paying ridiculous bills that to this day seem to be coming out of the woodwork, etc.). 

But you know what?  I was riding high because my Dallas Mavericks FINALLY BROKE THROUGH AND WON AN NBA TITLE!!!!!  I just knew that it would be a summer of “I told you so’s” and glowing coverage of my favorite team. 

But during that Dallas series my daughter broke her arm in a freak accident, which wore me out to the degree where I couldn’t enjoy the win.  I mean, a five-year old breaking her arm during the summer?  You don’t get that back.  Then we had the pair of lockouts in the NFL and the NBA.  After missing only one meaningless preseason game, pro football got their act together and figured things out because, hey, their model just needed a couple of tweaks since everybody save for the Jacksonville Jaguars (enjoy football there while it lasts, guys) is profiting. 

I guess the nieve fan in me didn’t want to believe how financially hamstrung my favorite league was.  Apparently even after a wildly successful season, the NBA reported losses of over $300 million.  Accurate or not, I should have known that neither side was going to concede quickly, especially the owners, who didn’t make any true concessions until last week, 149 days after locking out the players. 

Thanks to Twitter , I was able to keep tabs on the entire process, the long negotiating sessions where reporters were camped in hotel lobbies similar to the way I camped out years ago to get Maryland tickets.  I also kept tabs on the potential fan backlash by scouring Intenet message boards on various websites.  I found about four different types of posters: the ones favoring the players; the ones favoring the owners (a subset of this group was a bunch of pseudo-racist posters who classified the players as “greedy thugs” and wondering “how baby’s mothers would get money”); people who blamed both parties and just wanted there to be basketball, and finally people who said they would never watch another second of NBA basketball.  Respectively, I would guesstimate 20%, 35%, 30% and 15%.

My stance?  It’s easy for the casual observer to say that the employees shouldn’t be earning more than the bosses, but you can’t compare the NBA, or any sports league for that matter, to any other profession except for the movie industry.  True, a studio needs to buy the movie, someone needs to produce it, someone needs to direct it.  But while it’s not out of the question for someone to say, “Hey, I’m going to see Inception because Christopher Nolan is directing it and I friggin’ loved Memento“, Leonardo DiCaprio is the cause for people flocking to the movie theatres in this case.  I guarantee a good 25-30% of my audience (if I have one) probably just asked who the hell Christopher Nolan was. 

Sports is a unique industry where the talent, at least the elite talent, can justify earning owner-type money, which is why I credited them for giving back as much money as they did.  However, the owners ultimately won the negotiating session by gaining approximately seven percent of basketball related income. 

But, at the end of the day, here I am this morning watching the 2011 finals on NBATV, the first semblance of modern day basketball we’ve seen on that channel since July 1st.  I just finished watching Game 2, the game where Dirk Nowitzki cemented his legacy as one of the top 20 players in the league’s history by orchestrating one of the most ridiculous comebacks in NBA history.  The shot Nowitzki where the Mavs took the lead for the first time since the beginning of the second half gives me goosebumps, not because of the shot itself, but the crowd’s reaction as the shot was leaving his hands.  Collective shock and awe reverberated from the crowd as though they couldn’t believe this was happening, like they were witnessing a murder. How is the best shooter on the floor getting that wide-open of a look? How are we blowing a 15-point lead with under seven minutes left?  

I’m not going to lie: the lockout left in awful taste in my mouth.  It shouldn’t have lasted as long as it did.  Both sides need to re-evaluate leadership roles down the road. 

But at the end of the day, my world is much better with the NBA back.

In 8th grade, my mom grounded me because I was slacking a little bit in scholastically.  “Grounded” meant no TV, no going out after sunset, no computer.

“Can I buy a book?”

“Sure,” she said.

I went into the bookstore, and for some reason I grabbed Fall River Dreams.  Intrigued by how Bill Reynolds portrayed you in the book, I decided to look you up. 

I remember the first time I actually watched you play.  It was your junior year, and you guys had UMass at Selland Arena.  Truth be told, I was more curious about your backcourt mate Rafer Alston, who hadn’t even played a collegiate game but somehow graced the cover of SLAM magazine and was touted as the best point guard since Jesus Christ.

But you got me.  You had swagger way before people started overusing the word.  You were hitting “Jimmer Threes” before Mr. and Mrs. even thought about their son. 

And you were tough.  Athletes speak all the time about embracing the hostile road environment, but 99% of are just talk.  I have that SMU game on tape, probably non-functional at this point due to all the views, but to this day I don’t think I’ve ever seen a collegiate player destroy a team like that while the home fans are doing everything short of coming down on the court and lighting your shorts on fire.  It was a shame you never ended up on a cohesive team, because you could have made March’s that much better.

I always wondered why you never made it, dude.  For years I’ve been telling anybody who would listen that you were like Jason Williams… only if Jason Williams had a higher basketball IQ, more athleticism and a more consistent jumper.

But after reading your book and just finishing “Unguarded”, I have an even deeper appreciation for you.  I won’t go into crazy detail because I don’t want to create a Googleable “justin cherot, three tires” thread for potential future employers to view, but addiction is a hell of a thing. 

The fact that you’re beating it proves that there’s an upside for everybody.  Too often we hear about athletes and other celebrities that get killed in the media for drug abuse, but people sympathize with cancer patients.  The mainstream is only beginning to realize that drug and alcohol addiction is a disease, too, and your story is a positive step toward evoking change.

You may not have become the point guard that I thought you’d become, but believe me when I say that your impact on society is more powerful as a voice for hope than it is as an NBA player. 
        

From wire services

According to a source, all signs indicate that esteemed sports blogger and all-world salesman Justin Cherot and his biotechnically savvy fiancee Shanta Myricks are expecting… that is, expecting to add a dog to their household.

The dog is expected to be a young shia-pu less than four months old. 

The move comes as a surprise for those outside Cherot/Myricks household, as well as for their five-year-old daughter Cadence, whom when sneakily asked by a member of the media replied, “I was told we were going to look at goldfish today.  Mommy and Daddy said maybe next year (for a dog).”

But if they did bring a dog home?

“Puppy!!!!” Cadence exclaimed.

This will be Cherot’s and Myricks’, both 29, first pet in years.  Cherot had a cat named Timothy up until his collegiate years, and Myricks had a dog named Mocha during much of her childhood.

When asked to comment on the situation late last night, Cherot said, “I’m too busy following David Aldridge on Twitter, trying to see if this NBA lockout is ever going to end.”

As hard as I’ve tried to embrace football–which is inarguably our country’s most popular sport–I can’t help it anymore. 

All things considered, I’ve handled this lockout very well.  I’m averaging less than one “B&M” Facebook post a week regarding the state of the NBA and its lockout (and if you don’t know what “B&M” stands for, think real hard).  But every person has their breaking point. 

NBA 2K12 comes out tomorrow, or today if you’re reading this while doing something minimally important at work.  I should be psyched…well, okay… I AM psyched.  But normally I’d go over the top, scouring the stores to see if anybody would be “down” enough to break the street date Monday night (note: vendors have definitely cracked down in recent years; there was a time I could go to a video game store and buy the game at three in the afternoon the day before it came out). 

Don’t get me wrong: the trailer from IGN still gives me goosebumps, especially with Eminem and Royce Da 5’9″ trading verbals over “Fast Lane.”  The individual player tendency detail is amazing, particularly on Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans.

Man, that looks good.  What’s the phone number to that 24-hour Walmart again?

But at the same time, I have to remind myself that I’m pissed.  Playing 2K12 doesn’t replace actual NBA basketball.  Hell, the rookies can’t even be on the game because they’re not under contract (my first game may very well have been with the Sacramento Kings, and my first shot probably would have been an ill-advised 30-footer off the dribble with virtual Jimmer Fredette as virtual Paul Westphal shakes his head in disgust).

Make no mistake: in my best Tiger Woods’ voice, tomorrow is a huge day for the NBA.  I’ve heard rumblings from multiple writers and news’ outlets that if they don’t figure stuff out by tomorrow, there’s a chance David Stern could say, “You know what?  Either we play all 82 or we can take the year off.”  As successful as last season was from a ratings’ standpoint, one could make the argument that the aftershock of the last work stoppage during the 1998-1999 season still exist. 

I was a sophmore in my high school the last time it happened, just as much of a diehard fan as I am today, and the NBA lost me for a good year and a half before Don Nelson and the Dallas Mavericks got me hooked again. 

I’d like to think that I’m much older and wiser than I was back then.  I’d like to think that I can better sympathize with both sides and realize that the players and the owners aren’t doing anything different than me or you would do when we’re angling for a good deal on a used car.  I’d like to think that I’d be fine knowing that my Mavs won’t get the chance to defend the title they finally won after all those years of getting close. 

But…        

Is Tony Romo turning into Dirk Nowitzki like Natalie Portman turned into the Black Swan? Um, maybe? (fantasyfootballrankings.com)

by Justin Cherot

I’m an athlete playing for a franchise in Dallas with an owner who, for better or worse, will throw money at everything and hopes a championship will materialize. 

I’ve got undeniable talent, and every year my statistics are through the roof.  But every year–every single f#$%in’ year–I have to hear the same thing from reporters and fans who think they should be the owner or GM:

‘He’s not tough enough to win in the postseason.”

“He’s great in the regular season, but in the playoffs he freezes up during crisis.”

“They can’t win a championship with him as their best player.”

They’re absolutely right.  I play awful in the clutch.  Really, I do.  I’m just a regular season stats guy…

…oh, sorry.  Lost my train of thought.  I was too busy shining my NBA Finals’ MVP.  What were we talking about again?

You laughed just now.  Admit it.  But, to be fair, Dirk Nowitzki was just as maligned, if not significantly more so, than Tony Romo.  The parallels are amazing.  Both seemingly came out of nowhere: Nowitzki from Germany BEFORE the foreigner craze (shoot, he CREATED the foreigner craze); Romo out of football powerhouse Eastern Illinois.  Both burst on the scene with relative quickness (although it did take a full year for Dirk to get used to the NBA and Romo a couple of seasons to unseat Drew Bledsoe).  Both have enjoyed tremendous regular season success (bet most of you didn’t know that Romo has the fourth highest QB rating of all-time).

And yet, fair or unfair, both have had to deal with the whispers–or screams–that they weren’t tough enough to win a championship.

I was one of them.  Especially with Dirk.

What I’m about to write has never been spoken aloud and you won’t find it anywhere in cyberspace: it took every last bone in my body not to give up on #41 after what happened in 2007 against Golden State.  I think we need video for this one (thanks, Lilpharmacist11).

I was embarrassed to be a Dallas Mavericks’ fan after that loss.  Straight up.  That was a pretty tough summer, not to mention that I was going through some personal stuff as well. 

But I’ll can pinpoint exactly when I truly believed Nowitzki had a title in him, and not just a Glen Rice “third or fourth guy on a really good team” title: a legit title as an alpha dog.

2008.

Dallas was having. by their standards, a down season which saw them fighting for one of the last playoff spots in the Western Conference.  To make matters worse, Nowitzki suffered an ankle sprain and a knee sprain on the same play against the San Antonio Spurs in late March (props to acecmopu17).

Did you see that fall!?  Human beings probably miss close to a month, if not more.  Nowitzki was back in nine days, leading the Mavs to a crucial win over the Golden State Warriors that ultimately helped them clinch a playoff spot.

I felt like that was the subtle beginning to the Dirk we know today, the kind of guy who could shake off a fractured finger and Fathertime to slaughter the Miami Heat down the stretch of games.

But I severely digress.  What I’ve been trying to illustrate throughout the past 516 words is that I’ve seen enough to know that, despite cat calls and criticism, Romo is close to being ready.

I should point out that despite my affinity to the Mavericks, I am by no means a Cowboys’ fan.  Not even close.  I don’t even neccesarily like Jessica Simpson’s former lover.  But I can acknowledge when I see a transformation.

His performance with two cracked ribs and a punctured lung against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 2 was pretty good stuff (especially for my fantasy team).  But I was far more impressed with his performance in Week 3.  I know what you’re thinking, Cowboy haters:

“But he didn’t even throw a touchdown.”

It has more to do with the extraneous variables going on around him and his response to all the madness.  Consider the following:

1) His throwing motion, which has a lot of junk and sidearm action, probably makes the pain even worse than normal.

2) The Redskins openly acknowledged aiming for his ribs and their defensive coordinator was coming after him (which Colin Donohue thoroughly enjoyed, and by “enjoyed” I meant “wanted to drive all the way to Dallas from North Carolina just so he could slap Skins defensive coordinator Jim Haslett with a night stick or something worse.”

3) His center, Phil Costa, apparently was still upset about Temple destroying Maryland over the weekend (no words) and he couldn’t go five minutes without a snap either going over Romo’s head or into his balls. 

4) He was without his best receiver, Miles Austin, which should be much higher on the list.

5) There are gamers playing Madden ’12 for the first time who know more about the Cowboys’ playbook than the Cowboys’ receivers… other than Dez Bryant, of course.

And yet… his team won.  No word on what this means about the Redskins’ chances going forward (sorry Colin), but his team won because he put that team on his back.  Because he refused to let all those hits get to him.  Because he had the audacity to consistently dig into his teammates for their mistakes, and yet at the same time had the presence of mind to talk them up on the sidelines.  Because, after years of being the fun-loving, good-looking guy who just happened to play quarterback for America’s Team, he decided that America’s Team was his team. 

And that’s where I feel we’re at with Romo.  He’s undergoing that transformation between a guy who puts up numbers into a guy who can win when it counts… keyword “undergoing”, but it’s very clear that it’s happening before our eyes. 

Will he ever get there? 

Probably not, because Dirk Nowitzki never did.  Oh, wait…

Cam Newton makes his fantasy debut Sunday. V-103 Atlanta.

I was dumb enough to think that I was the first person to think of Week 1′s clever headline, but apparently I’m not.  Thanks a bunch, Bleacher Report!   

Any how, I decided to be like the Oakland Raiders’ secondary (no words…) and take the week off from making picks on the site, although if you are one of my two friends on Facebook, you’d know that I did drop a little bit of knowledge on there an hour before mass kick-off last Sunday.

So, with that in mind, let’s hope I can improve upon my 21-12-3 mark this season.

(Note: lines from ESPN.com as of 8:24 am 9/23/11) 

PATRIOTS (-9) at Bills

If my Raiders can hang 35 on the road while missing their top three receivers, what do you think Tom Brady is going to do?  I guess the only question in this one is whether or not the Pats’ defense will give up 30+ points to Ryan Fitzpatrick and his offense.  I think that Bill Belichick will have his defense ready to go after a couple of subpar performances.  42-28, New England.

49ers (+3) at BENGALS

I’m taking a team with Alex Smith at quarterback playing on the road.  Maybe I really am losing my mind.  It’ll be close, but I still think there’s too much inexperience on the offensive side of the ball for the Bengals.  21-17, Niners.

Dolphins (+3) at BROWNS

Sure, Miami looked outclassed against New England and Houston, but I think they’ll be able to move the ball well against Cleveland.  However, I have to admit that it’s slightly alarming that Chad Henne has more rushing yards than Reggie Bush.  An interesting subplot to this game will be Daniel Thomas’ debut for the Las Vegas Spread in the Lowe’s Football League.  Miami, 24-20.

Broncos at TITANS (-7)

Is Tennessee for real?  Obviously, this week they won’t definitively answer that question against Denver, but if they blow them away–like I think they will–people might not be so quick to crown the Houston Texans as division champs.  31-14, Tennessee (and more Tim Tebow supporters calling sports radio stations).

LIONS at Vikings (+4)

Detroit is looking like an early season feel-good story, but I’m not ready to buy the Lions as legitimate contenders quite yet.  On the other side of the coin, everybody is talking about how bad the Vikings are, and yet if Donovan McNabb throws for over 100 yards in Week 1 and they hold onto a 17-0 first half lead in Week 2, the Vikings could just as easily be 2-0.  Also, the Lions haven’t seen an elite running back for a full game (in Week 1 LaGarrette Blount touched the ball five more times than I did, and unfortunately you saw what happened to Jamal Charles in Week 2), and that’s what they’re going to get with Adrian Peterson.  27-24, Vikings.

Texans at SAINTS (-4)

One of those weird fantasy football weeks: I’m starting Drew Brees against Darrien Gill’s DMV Triumph, and I’m playing against my future brother-in-law–Todd Mueller–who just happens to start Brees for Prestige Worldwide.  A little bit later on you’ll see why I’m not as scared about playing against him, but concerning the game itself, I don’t know if Houston will be able to get enough pressure on Brees to make a difference.  35-24 Saints.

Giants at Eagles (even)

If Michael Vick plays, and it looks like he will, there’s no way this game should have an even line.  Not with New York’s patchwork secondary.  Eagles, 32-23.

Jaguars at PANTHERS (-4)

Breaking news: Cam Newton gets his first fantasy start of the season for “Pryor’s on Fire!!!!!”.  Sure, he hasn’t been perfect to start the season, but I don’t think he’ll have to be to beat the Jags’ defense.  24-10, Carolina.

JETS (-4) at Raiders (!!!!)

My reverse psychology pick of the week.  Even though the Raiders’ back-up receivers–especially Denarius Moore, who at this point should no longer be considered a back-up–played extremely well last week, the Jets’ defense is less forgiving than the Bills’.  I’m hoping for big things from Darren McFadden, but realistically I’m thinking it’ll be a difficult weekend for him: not only do his Raiders more than likely lose, but his Arkansas Razorbacks are going to get rocked, too.  Jets, 24-17.

RAVENS (-4) at Rams

Starting to think I gave Baltimore the kiss of death by picking them as Super Bowl champions, but thankfully champions aren’t crowned in mid-September.  Meanwhile, St. Louis has to be careful: if they lose this game, they could come out of the weekend two games back of the ’Niners and Cards in the race to eight wins, AKA the NFC West title.  Ravens, 31-20.

Chiefs (+15) at Chargers

San Diego has been getting massive spreads to start the season, and although the Chiefs have shown no signs of being able lose by less than three scores, this is a divisional rivalry game, and you know what they say: weird crap happens in divisional rivalry games, to put it eloquently.  Chargers, 35-27.

Bears (+4) at PACKERS

Aaron Rodgers is a stud quarterback in this league, but for whatever reason he struggles against Chicago.  Meanwhile, Bears’ faithful are clamoring for their team to play more ground-and-pound football, but this is the week they want to go out and test a Packer secondary that has given up back-to-back 400 yard performances.  It’ll be a good one, but I think the Packers still win, 27-24.

CARDINALS (-4) at Seahawks

Kevin Kolb has looked pretty good in his first two starts with Arizona, which I think will be more than enough against a Seattle defense which will offer little resistance.  Ugh, can we just get rid of the NFC West altogether?

Falcons (+1) at BUCCANEERS 

Love the +1 or -1 spreads, because it simplifies things.  Either you think Team “A” is going to win or you think Team “B” is going to win.  In this case, the Falcons are a little bit better at this point in the season, particularly offensively.  Then again, the Bucs swag may be sky-high after overcoming a big halftime deficit…but if I had money on it I’m shoving my chips towards the Falcons, 27-21.

STEELERS (-11) at Colts

Do we even need to do lines for Indy anymore?  How about this: anytime you see them opposite another team, pick WHATEVER the spread is.  Chances are that out of the 16 games they play, you’ll end up a winner in at least 14.  Book it!

Cowboys at Redskins (even)

If I’m a Washington fan, I don’t know how excited I would be knowing that Vegas thinks your team is even with a Dallas team that has a banged-up No.1 quarterback, wide receiver (who is listed as doubtful) and running back.  So, Redskins’ fans (cough, Colin): while your team is highly likely to start the season 3-0, it remains to be seen if the ‘Skins are playing meaningful football in December.  Still… ‘Skins, 31-28.

(Redskins fans: this is the time when you say to me, “How many 17-point leads have WE blown this year?”)

Record: 21-12-1   

It’s no secret that basketball is my first love.  I mean, it’s not like you stumbled upon the “Cover 1 Robber” blog, right?  Colin and I are equal opportunity sports’ enthusiasts… okay, at least Colin is.  But, I’m a realist: football is America’s favorite sport (attention anyone who just asked about baseball: you had the entire summer to yourself and the media only focused on the two lockouts), and this site just needs more football.

Am I a football genius?  Apparently not since I benched New Orleans defense/special teams last night (kicks self in the face twice).  But I do thoroughly enjoy the game and the spectacle that goes beyond the game and oozes into bars, water cooler discussions and sales vernacular (“You sure scored a touchdown on that one, Suzie…WHAT reccession!?”).  Pick and Pop needs more football?  I’m down for the cause.

And so, without further ado, for the first time this season… let’s do some lines!   

(favorite in caps)

Pretty sure this is a make or break year for Joe Flacco.

New Orleans at GREEN BAY (-4)

If you follow me on Facebook (and if not then I promise you’re REALLY missing out), you know that I see this game as a lay-up.  Why?  Let’s see, defending champs dripping with swag playing at home against a defense that didn’t get much better in the off-season and an offense that’s a little banged up.  Lay-up.  And not a “Manu Ginobili, twisting and euro-stepping through traffic” lay-up.  I’m talking “Dwight Howard in a cross-match with Earl Boykins” lay-up.  Can you tell this NBA lockout is driving me nuts?  GET A DEAL DONE!!!!!

(Note: If you do follow me on Facebook then you’ll know I posted my thoughts on this game hours before.  While it seemed more like the Ginobili lay-up than the Howard lay-up, the Packers still covered.  Winning.)

Pittsburgh at BALTIMORE (-1.5)

Essentially this is a toss-up, but when in doubt take the home team.  On a sidenote, if you’re a Ravens’ fan, you have to be thinking that this is the year you finally overtake Pittsburgh.  Joe Flacco finally has a full complement of weapons at his disposal, and I get the feeling that the Steelers are headed for a slight step back.  If it doesn’t happen this year, then it’s simple: Flacco isn’t the answer.

Detroit (+1.5) at TAMPA BAY

Call me crazy, but I think the Lions are going to be in the playoff hunt.  Matthew Stafford was starting to show flashes of brilliance before he got hurt, and even without him I don’t think they were outclassed in any one game last year.  Meanwhile, the Buccaneers flirted with the playoffs in 2010 and won at least three or four games that they shouldn’t have.  Semi-upset pick of the week… but is it really an upset when the line is basically a pick ‘em?

ATLANTA (-3) at Chicago

Jay Cutler has had a long time to think about that premature exit in the second half of the NFC championship game.  Sure, maybe he was legitimately hurt and unfairly criticized, but regardless it’ll be interesting to see how he comes out.  My guess?  A multi-pick day in a home loss against a better team.

Buffalo at KANSAS CITY (-6.5)

I have mixed feelings about the Chiefs this year.  Sure, they went 10-6, but thanks to a division crown, they’ll see a tougher schedule this year.  While I can’t see them better than 8-8 in any scenario, I need them to be playing with late-game leads to justify my Jamal Charles first-round fantasy pick.  But regardless of how I feel about the Chiefs, I can’t see the Bills coming into Arrowhead and putting up much of a fight.

PHILADELPHIA (-4) at St. Louis

Man, I’m so boring making all of these conservative picks. Two interesting sub-plots though: 1) Is Sam Bradford ready to make the gigantic leap people are predicting him to make, and 2) Can the Eagles play well enough to justify all that “Dream Team” talk oozing out of pundits’ mouths?  I’m thinking a partial “yes” to the former (Bradford needs more weapons to succeed but will make a nice statistical jump) and a “no” to the latter (football is different than basketball and the new parts are going to need time to gel).

Cincinati (+6.5) at CLEVELAND

Maybe I need to be drug-tested, but I think the Bengals have a pretty nice foundation.  Andy Dalton might never become the second coming of Joe Montana, but he has a good head on his shoulders.  Plus, A.J. Green will eventually become a one of the premier receivers in this league, and Jermaine Gresham is already a very good pass-catching tight end.  And if you don’t buy any of that, Peyton Hillis is on the cover of Madden, so that either means one of his legs is going to be bitten by a zombie or the Browns will go 2-14.

Tennessee (+2) at JACKSONVILLE

Um, does Vegas know that the Jaguars are starting Luke McCown at quarterback?  I’m not sure if anything else really needs to be said, other than Chris Johnson needs to go out and earn all that money.  No pressure CJ, just trying to win a fantasy title, my dude! 

Indianapolis at HOUSTON (-8.5)

Jim Irsay says that Peyton Manning is going to be out for “awhile”.  Pretty vague.  Michael Vick and Plaxico Burress went to jail for “awhile”, but then again Peja Stojakovic was hot for “awhile” during the Dallas Mavericks’ playoff run.  Tough to say, but I’m going out on the limb and saying that Manning will see the field at some point this season.  Still, wouldn’t it be cool if the Colts tank this year to get Andrew Luck next year?  Meanwhile, I’m prematurely slitting my wrists for having Reggie Wayne in both of my fantasy football leagues.

NEW YORK GIANTS at Washington (+3)

I had the privilege of seeing the Skins up close when they came to Baltimore, and even though it was a meaningless pre-season game, I came away impressed with their ability to move the ball down the field.  I never thought I’d say that about any team with Rex Grossman as their quarterback, but here we are.  Meanwhile, several of the Giants’ players have been injected with the injury serum (this is my official protest to the cliche ”injury bug”, although I’m not sure if I’ll stick with it but this is the best I can come up with for now), especially on defense with Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck and Prince Amukamara.  

Carolina at ARIZONA (-7)

I can understand why there would be question marks about Kevin Kolb, and why wouldn’t there be from Cardinal faithful when you give up a starting cornerback for a guy who hasn’t started a full season?  We don’t know much about Arizona’s chances this year, but I do know this about Carolina: they’re going to be pretty awful.  If they win four games this season, first-year coach Ron Rivera deserves votes for Coach of the Year.  I think Cam Newton will eventually be a pretty good quarterback, but if you play fantasy football and you have whatever defense the Panthers are playing against, it’s safe to say you’re starting that defense and sitting back in your chair with your arms folded and completely relaxed. 

Minnesota (+8.5) at SAN DIEGO

Quite frankly, that’s just too many points for a Charger team that went 9-7 while playing in (supposedly) the second worst division in football.  I still think San Diego wins this game by a touchdown, but I don’t think we’re talking multi-scores here.  As bad as Donovan McNabb looked last year, I still think he’s got one or two solid years left in him, and let’s not forget that Adrian Peterson simply Nowitzkis the competition year in and year out.  Yes, Webster’s has made “Nowitzki” an official verb.  The synonym is “dominate”.

Seattle at SAN FRANCISCO (-5)

Let’s just agree that this division is going to be awful again.  How bad was it?  The Niners lost their first five games before inexplicably beating Oakland (!!!), fired their coach before the season finale, and STILL finished one game out of the division title.  And this team is favored in Week 1!?  Oh wait… they’re playing a team starting Tavaris Jackson at quarterback.  Let’s move on.

Dallas at NEW YORK JETS (-5)

I expect the Cowboys to be a lot better this season, especially since they will enter the season knowing that a championship in Dallas is possible (okay, fine, I’ll stop… just know that I’ve been floating on a cloud for three months).  Seriously though, a full season of Tony Romo with an improved Dez Bryant and established targets in Miles Austin and Jason Witten means the Cowboys will light up scoreboards and get Justin massive fantasy points… just not against a Jets’ defense that will be playing with extra motivation on 9/11.  I would love to sit here and say that playing a football game on 9/11 in New York won’t give the Jets an added boost, but I’d be lying. 

NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) at Miami

We’re only one game in the books so far in this NFL season, but with Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees (cough, good stuff) both putting on a show last night, don’t you think Tom Brady will want to try to one-up them?  I know football is a team sport and no one man is bigger than the greater good, but Brady pays attention.  I expect a “Watch the Throne” like performance with ten catches a piece for Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez (are you starting to get a picture for what my fantasy teams look like?). 

Oakland (+3) at DENVER

Blatant outright disrespect for a team that SWEPT the AFC West.  Despite the absolute hateration from prognosticators, the Raiders will be in the hunt for a division title this season.  The running game is too strong, the defense is sturdy even after losing Nnamdi Asomugha, and the rest of the division is certainly beatable.  Before you call me nuts, just remember who was right about the Mavericks…

***************************************************************************************************

I figured I would do one final fun exercise before disappearing into the new man cave until next week’s lines.  First of all, let me just say that, if gambling were legal (which it isn’t in Maryland), and I was in the position to make an investment in a futures bet on who’s going to win the Super Bowl (which I’m not), and I wanted a juicy payout that wasn’t completely out of the question (where’s my checkbook?), how can you not like the Baltimore Ravens and the Philadelphia Eagles?  Vegasinsider.com  has the Ravens currently at 10-1 and the Eagles at 12-1.  Yes, I know the Packers looked damn near unbeatable last night, and yes, we know the Patriots and Steelers will surely have something to say about all of this, but the Ravens and the Eagles are right there knocking at the door, and to get them at 10-1 and 12-1 respectively is a pretty good bargain in my opinion. 

Therefore…

…hold on…

…it’s been awhile…

…here it comes…

PROP BET ALERT!!! PROP BET ALERT!!!  One of those two teams will win the Super Bowl. 

And if I had to put money on it, I would pick the Ravens.  Let the commoners on Pratt St. rejoice.

Good to be back.

I have a friend who is not looking forward to the NBA Finals, not if it involves the newly-crowned Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks and the Miami Heat, who have a stranglehold on the Eastern Conference finals against the Chicago Bulls.

The premise for why he is disenchanted?  The whole notion that you can buy an NBA title these days.

I can understand why someone would feel that way about the Heat, given the whole “Decision” fiasco this summer and how they threw over $300 million LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh this off-season.  Currently, they are five wins away from validating the working hypothesis that “the best players win”. 

And, in a vacuum, maybe I can understand why people may feel the same way about the Mavericks and their owner Mark Cuban, a guy who would probably overpay for a dollar menu item if it meant it was his.

But let’s look at how these Mavs are built:

Their starting center, Tyson Chandler, was written off league-wide because he could never stay healthy and was meant to provide cap relief.  Best case, he was supposed to be a minor upgrade over Erick Dampier.

Their starting small forward, Shawn Marion, was considered damaged goods because he had an inflated sense of self.   

Their point guard, Jason Kidd, as recently as a year and a half ago, was considered a huge liability against teams with quick guards and an inconsistent three-point shooter.

Their shooting guard, DeShawn Stevenson, was a throw-in for a trade with Caron Butler (inactive but pretty much dismissed as well for his ball-stopping offense).  Coming off of back surgery and a disastrous year shooting the ball, people thought he would have the best seat in the house for Mav games.

Some of the bench guys:

Peja Stojakovic‘s comet had come and gone and he couldn’t get off the bench in New Orleans.  Mike D’Antoni apparently didn’t want Corey Brewer, an energetic guy in his mid 20′s who, unlike any New York Knick, plays defense.  Oh, and 5’1″ (okay, 6’0″) J.J. Barea was seen as too short and not athletic enough to survive in the NBA.  Brendan Haywood… okay, I’ll concede that Cuban threw an unneccesary amount of money at Haywood, but he’s STILL a huge reason why the Mavs are in the finals.

I’ve mentioned everybody important except for the two holdovers from that 2006 Finals’ team: Jason Terry and Dirk Nowitzki.

I’ll start with Terry, who the Atlanta Hawks gave up on after several years because, well, when you can trade for a game-changer like Antoine Walker you gotta do it.  There were even skeptics calling the trade a bust a couple months into the 2005 season because he wasn’t a true point guard and got beat out by rookie Devin Harris. 

Then there’s Nowitzki, who played so inconsistently his rookie year that he thought about going back to Germany.  Even though he turned into a star, he had to deal with the “not tough enough/clutch enough” to win a championship.  When he finally became both, he was seen as too old to win in a younger league.

Do you see a prevailing theme with this team?  Yes, the owner throws money around, but buying a championship? 

What I see on this team is a bunch of guys who, at one point or another were told they were too ______ to succeed in the NBA, creating a group of hungry vets desperate for a title.

Will they win one?  Just tell them they can’t.