Let’s Do Some Lines, Week 1

by Justin Cherot

It’s no secret that basketball is my first love.  I mean, it’s not like you stumbled upon the “Cover 1 Robber” blog, right?  Colin and I are equal opportunity sports’ enthusiasts… okay, at least Colin is.  But, I’m a realist: football is America’s favorite sport (attention anyone who just asked about baseball: you had the entire summer to yourself and the media only focused on the two lockouts), and this site just needs more football.

Am I a football genius?  Apparently not since I benched New Orleans defense/special teams last night (kicks self in the face twice).  But I do thoroughly enjoy the game and the spectacle that goes beyond the game and oozes into bars, water cooler discussions and sales vernacular (“You sure scored a touchdown on that one, Suzie…WHAT reccession!?”).  Pick and Pop needs more football?  I’m down for the cause.

And so, without further ado, for the first time this season… let’s do some lines!   

(favorite in caps)

Pretty sure this is a make or break year for Joe Flacco.

New Orleans at GREEN BAY (-4)

If you follow me on Facebook (and if not then I promise you’re REALLY missing out), you know that I see this game as a lay-up.  Why?  Let’s see, defending champs dripping with swag playing at home against a defense that didn’t get much better in the off-season and an offense that’s a little banged up.  Lay-up.  And not a “Manu Ginobili, twisting and euro-stepping through traffic” lay-up.  I’m talking “Dwight Howard in a cross-match with Earl Boykins” lay-up.  Can you tell this NBA lockout is driving me nuts?  GET A DEAL DONE!!!!!

(Note: If you do follow me on Facebook then you’ll know I posted my thoughts on this game hours before.  While it seemed more like the Ginobili lay-up than the Howard lay-up, the Packers still covered.  Winning.)

 

Pittsburgh at BALTIMORE (-1.5)

Essentially this is a toss-up, but when in doubt take the home team.  On a sidenote, if you’re a Ravens’ fan, you have to be thinking that this is the year you finally overtake Pittsburgh.  Joe Flacco finally has a full complement of weapons at his disposal, and I get the feeling that the Steelers are headed for a slight step back.  If it doesn’t happen this year, then it’s simple: Flacco isn’t the answer.

Detroit (+1.5) at TAMPA BAY

Call me crazy, but I think the Lions are going to be in the playoff hunt.  Matthew Stafford was starting to show flashes of brilliance before he got hurt, and even without him I don’t think they were outclassed in any one game last year.  Meanwhile, the Buccaneers flirted with the playoffs in 2010 and won at least three or four games that they shouldn’t have.  Semi-upset pick of the week… but is it really an upset when the line is basically a pick ‘em?

ATLANTA (-3) at Chicago

Jay Cutler has had a long time to think about that premature exit in the second half of the NFC championship game.  Sure, maybe he was legitimately hurt and unfairly criticized, but regardless it’ll be interesting to see how he comes out.  My guess?  A multi-pick day in a home loss against a better team.

Buffalo at KANSAS CITY (-6.5)

I have mixed feelings about the Chiefs this year.  Sure, they went 10-6, but thanks to a division crown, they’ll see a tougher schedule this year.  While I can’t see them better than 8-8 in any scenario, I need them to be playing with late-game leads to justify my Jamal Charles first-round fantasy pick.  But regardless of how I feel about the Chiefs, I can’t see the Bills coming into Arrowhead and putting up much of a fight.

PHILADELPHIA (-4) at St. Louis

Man, I’m so boring making all of these conservative picks. Two interesting sub-plots though: 1) Is Sam Bradford ready to make the gigantic leap people are predicting him to make, and 2) Can the Eagles play well enough to justify all that “Dream Team” talk oozing out of pundits’ mouths?  I’m thinking a partial “yes” to the former (Bradford needs more weapons to succeed but will make a nice statistical jump) and a “no” to the latter (football is different than basketball and the new parts are going to need time to gel).

Cincinati (+6.5) at CLEVELAND

Maybe I need to be drug-tested, but I think the Bengals have a pretty nice foundation.  Andy Dalton might never become the second coming of Joe Montana, but he has a good head on his shoulders.  Plus, A.J. Green will eventually become a one of the premier receivers in this league, and Jermaine Gresham is already a very good pass-catching tight end.  And if you don’t buy any of that, Peyton Hillis is on the cover of Madden, so that either means one of his legs is going to be bitten by a zombie or the Browns will go 2-14.

Tennessee (+2) at JACKSONVILLE

Um, does Vegas know that the Jaguars are starting Luke McCown at quarterback?  I’m not sure if anything else really needs to be said, other than Chris Johnson needs to go out and earn all that money.  No pressure CJ, just trying to win a fantasy title, my dude! 

Indianapolis at HOUSTON (-8.5)

Jim Irsay says that Peyton Manning is going to be out for “awhile”.  Pretty vague.  Michael Vick and Plaxico Burress went to jail for “awhile”, but then again Peja Stojakovic was hot for “awhile” during the Dallas Mavericks’ playoff run.  Tough to say, but I’m going out on the limb and saying that Manning will see the field at some point this season.  Still, wouldn’t it be cool if the Colts tank this year to get Andrew Luck next year?  Meanwhile, I’m prematurely slitting my wrists for having Reggie Wayne in both of my fantasy football leagues.

NEW YORK GIANTS at Washington (+3)

I had the privilege of seeing the Skins up close when they came to Baltimore, and even though it was a meaningless pre-season game, I came away impressed with their ability to move the ball down the field.  I never thought I’d say that about any team with Rex Grossman as their quarterback, but here we are.  Meanwhile, several of the Giants’ players have been injected with the injury serum (this is my official protest to the cliche ”injury bug”, although I’m not sure if I’ll stick with it but this is the best I can come up with for now), especially on defense with Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck and Prince Amukamara.  

Carolina at ARIZONA (-7)

I can understand why there would be question marks about Kevin Kolb, and why wouldn’t there be from Cardinal faithful when you give up a starting cornerback for a guy who hasn’t started a full season?  We don’t know much about Arizona’s chances this year, but I do know this about Carolina: they’re going to be pretty awful.  If they win four games this season, first-year coach Ron Rivera deserves votes for Coach of the Year.  I think Cam Newton will eventually be a pretty good quarterback, but if you play fantasy football and you have whatever defense the Panthers are playing against, it’s safe to say you’re starting that defense and sitting back in your chair with your arms folded and completely relaxed. 

Minnesota (+8.5) at SAN DIEGO

Quite frankly, that’s just too many points for a Charger team that went 9-7 while playing in (supposedly) the second worst division in football.  I still think San Diego wins this game by a touchdown, but I don’t think we’re talking multi-scores here.  As bad as Donovan McNabb looked last year, I still think he’s got one or two solid years left in him, and let’s not forget that Adrian Peterson simply Nowitzkis the competition year in and year out.  Yes, Webster’s has made “Nowitzki” an official verb.  The synonym is “dominate”.

Seattle at SAN FRANCISCO (-5)

Let’s just agree that this division is going to be awful again.  How bad was it?  The Niners lost their first five games before inexplicably beating Oakland (!!!), fired their coach before the season finale, and STILL finished one game out of the division title.  And this team is favored in Week 1!?  Oh wait… they’re playing a team starting Tavaris Jackson at quarterback.  Let’s move on.

Dallas at NEW YORK JETS (-5)

I expect the Cowboys to be a lot better this season, especially since they will enter the season knowing that a championship in Dallas is possible (okay, fine, I’ll stop… just know that I’ve been floating on a cloud for three months).  Seriously though, a full season of Tony Romo with an improved Dez Bryant and established targets in Miles Austin and Jason Witten means the Cowboys will light up scoreboards and get Justin massive fantasy points… just not against a Jets’ defense that will be playing with extra motivation on 9/11.  I would love to sit here and say that playing a football game on 9/11 in New York won’t give the Jets an added boost, but I’d be lying. 

NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) at Miami

We’re only one game in the books so far in this NFL season, but with Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees (cough, good stuff) both putting on a show last night, don’t you think Tom Brady will want to try to one-up them?  I know football is a team sport and no one man is bigger than the greater good, but Brady pays attention.  I expect a “Watch the Throne” like performance with ten catches a piece for Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez (are you starting to get a picture for what my fantasy teams look like?). 

Oakland (+3) at DENVER

Blatant outright disrespect for a team that SWEPT the AFC West.  Despite the absolute hateration from prognosticators, the Raiders will be in the hunt for a division title this season.  The running game is too strong, the defense is sturdy even after losing Nnamdi Asomugha, and the rest of the division is certainly beatable.  Before you call me nuts, just remember who was right about the Mavericks…

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I figured I would do one final fun exercise before disappearing into the new man cave until next week’s lines.  First of all, let me just say that, if gambling were legal (which it isn’t in Maryland), and I was in the position to make an investment in a futures bet on who’s going to win the Super Bowl (which I’m not), and I wanted a juicy payout that wasn’t completely out of the question (where’s my checkbook?), how can you not like the Baltimore Ravens and the Philadelphia Eagles?  Vegasinsider.com  has the Ravens currently at 10-1 and the Eagles at 12-1.  Yes, I know the Packers looked damn near unbeatable last night, and yes, we know the Patriots and Steelers will surely have something to say about all of this, but the Ravens and the Eagles are right there knocking at the door, and to get them at 10-1 and 12-1 respectively is a pretty good bargain in my opinion. 

Therefore…

…hold on…

…it’s been awhile…

…here it comes…

PROP BET ALERT!!! PROP BET ALERT!!!  One of those two teams will win the Super Bowl. 

And if I had to put money on it, I would pick the Ravens.  Let the commoners on Pratt St. rejoice.

Good to be back.

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