Shorter, More Concise But Nonetheless Still Cool NBA Preview Wrap-Up
By Justin Cherot
Time to buckle down and finish these previews. Photo by Justin Cherot.
Admittedly, I need to take a headline writing course. More importantly, I needed someone (cough, Colin, and by the way, you need to stop doing ’shrooms) to kick me in the head a couple of times and remind me that trying to do 30 previews player-by-player, while cool and original, just doesn’t fit into any normal, 40-hours-a-week person’s schedule. While I did better than I did my first time trying this in 2006, I couldn’t even fit one measely playoff team into my previews. For that, I apologize. Oh well, live and learn. Next year I promise to do better.
But, for now, we’re less than 20 hours away from a Washington Wizards’ ass-kicking (Go Mavs!), meaning I have to get these done in a timely manner. This is what I propose: instead of over-analyzing the remaining 300 or so players I haven’t mentioned yet (apologies to J.J. Redick, J.J Barea, Daequan Cook and plenty of other non-starters I won’t have time to go into), I’ll give you the most important player (MIP) from all the remaining teams and why they fit into such a category. Inevitably, some will be the “duh, even my daughter knows that this guy is the star of the team” players, and some will be those unsung guys whose team’s success hinges on whether or not they produce on a nightly basis.
So, for one last time, let’s ride. After the next 2000 or so words, these NBA previews will no longer hold me hostage. Now, where was I?
20. Memphis Grizzlies
MIP: Rudy Gay
If this team truly wants to take the next step from hype machine to legitimate playoff contender, Gay needs to take the reins of this team. Yeah, O.J. Mayo , Zach Randolph and boom or bust free agent pick-up Allen Iverson all need more attention (and shots) than him, but Gay, talent-wise, is the best and most versatile of this bunch. His assertiveness has been in question before, ultimately costing him a national championship at UConn, but if he can step in and be more of a leader on the court, this team is too talented not to contend for a playoff spot. The pieces are there, but like a trippy Dora the Explorer puzzle that seems like one thing until a shimmer of light hits it and then it looks completely different (not speaking from experience or anything), sometimes the pieces can be hard to put together… so hard in fact that sometimes they just refuse to fit.
19. Detroit Pistons
MIP: Tayshaun Prince
On a team full of “get mine” guys–Ben Gordon, Richard Hamilton, Charlie “NitTwit” Villanueva and Will Bynum, to name a few– Prince just needs to keep being that versatile, lockdown defender he’s always been. Yes, the faces are new and more offensive-minded, but Prince just has to be there to remind them that, contrary to popular belief over the past few years, there is still a “D” somewhere in Detroit. If he can’t, it’ll be this simple: Etroit will miss the playoffs.
18. Philadelphia 76ers
MIP: Lou Williams
The Sixers have a very nice core, headlined by Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand, who I think is finally due for a relevant season after two seasons of nothingness. However, the Sixers’ biggest move was letting Andre Miller walk without getting a true point guard to fill his shoes. Williams is going to try his hand at the spot, but let’s face it: he’s definitely a two. Coming from someone who had to do it at the high school level, trust me: it sounds easy to “learn” how to play the point, but guards are pretty much born into a position. How he handles the transition from one to two is ultimately going to tell the story of whether or not Philly makes the playoffs. And, as of right now, I just don’t see him doing well in this crash course, even if he does have Eddie Jordan pulling the strings for him.
17. New Orleans Hornets
MIP: Chris Paul
Denver Nuggets’ fans should be horrified right now. Bill Simmons (book out tomorrow, a must-buy) wrote in his NBA previews (Part I here and Part II here) that the Nuggets were this year’s ”Last Season Everything Went Right; This Season Everything Went Wrong” Team. Last year’s version? The Hornets. I knew it would happen, I even wrote it. In my own words, in ‘07-’08 everyone except for CP3 played way above their heads. Last season, everybody came back down to earth and they fell all the way to the seventh spot. Paul needs to basically carry this team just for them to sneak into the playoffs this year, and he will do his best to urge this squad with questionable talent into doing big things. Unfortunately, with the next team on the come-up, I just can’t see that happening. But Paul will make it interesting into the final week of the season.
16. Los Angeles Clippers
MIP: Baron Davis
Does anybody remember this Baron Davis:
Funny, because if you’re a Clipper fan you hardly saw any of this last year. Was it the injuries? Was it his conditioning? Was it his overall indifference because he felt betrayed by Elton Brand who, allegedly, begged him to come, only to sign with the Sixers? Who knows? What I do know is that apparently he’s in muuuuuuch better shape coming into this season, and I feel like the Davis of old will be back. On paper, this roster suits his style of play perfectly, with high-flyers in Blake Griffin (when he comes back from a broken knee cap, of course) and Al Thornton and a young, budding backcourt-mate in Eric Gordon. Guys, if Davis can stay healthy and on the court for 70, this is a playoff team.
15. Toronto Raptors
MIP: Chris Bosh
The rumors are swirling about where Bosh is going to be next season. Fine. That’s next season. This season, the Raptors have a playoff roster on paper. There’s no questioning CB4’s talent, but his gusto may eventually come into question (yeah, I went there, Chris Rock fans), especially if the Raptors come out of the gates slow. However, as mentioned before, Bosh has plenty of talent around him. The Hedo Turkoglu signing/Portland Trailblazer screwing takes a lot of pressure off of him, and it never hurts to have a pass- first point guard (Jose Calderon) and an emerging big guy who’s showing signs of “getting it” (Andrea Bargnani). The Raptors probably don’t have enough talent in the long run to keep Bosh in cold Canada, but his last run with them should find them in the playoffs.
14. Miami Heat
MIP: Michael Beasley
Side note before I get into Mr. “Be Easy” himself: the East has really closed the gap. Hard to believe I have the Heat this low. Anyway, we all know about Beasley’s off-the-court “stuff”, and anyone who knows me knows that it’s not that hard for me to relate to the troubled guys. It’s all about getting past it, though. If anything, Beasley needs to use the court as an outlet, because his team is going to need him to play like a No. 2 overall pick. They already have arguably (it would be quite an argument but the point could be made) the best player in the NBA in Dwyane Wade and some good young p… okay, I won’t sugarcoat it: Miami is this high strictly because of Wade’s ability to flat-out bring it every night. He just needs someone to bring it with him. Beasley can definitely be that guy. Or, he can just be satisfied with being the second coming of Derrick Coleman.
13. Washington Wizards
MIP: Gilbert Arenas
Okay, we all drank the “Wizards Are Better Off Without Hibachi” juice. And then last year happened. Granted, he wasn’t the entire reason they couldn’t even crack 20 wins last season, but needless to say he had a ton to do with it. I’ve read so many “Gilbert Looking Good” stories this past summer and off-season that I think I’m about to vomit, but I do admit that his highlights throughout the pre-season have been promising. It goes beyond numbers, though. Even for a team that doesn’t lack swagger–hell, their second best player, Caron Butler, calls himself “Tuff Juice” for crying out loud–they need his “swagger on a hundred, thousand, trillion” voice out on the floor and in the locker room to succeed. With their off-season improvements, I have them pegged as the East’s sixth seed right now (defense is a MF), but really the sky is the limit for this team if Gilbert really is the old Gilbert.
12. Chicago Bulls
MIP: Luol Deng
Gordon is gone from this bunch, so the Bulls will have to find someone to take and make all those big-time shots at the end of games. It’s assumed that Derrick Rose is the guy who’ll step up and have the ball in his hands down the stretch, but he can’t do it all. Somehow, the Bulls have to replace his 20 a game, and Deng is the likely candidate to put the biggest dent in that 20, if not go for 20 himself. If he can return to ‘06-’07 form, then the Bulls may not even miss Gordon all that much (especially with new acquisition Jannero Pargo trying to actually BE Ben Gordon down the stretch of ball games). It’ll be interesting to see if this young, talented bunch takes the next step… or if it remains stagnant like the old Baby Bulls (when Gordon and Kirk Hinrich and were considered young).
11. Phoenix Suns
MIP: Jason Richardson
Steve Nash has become one of the better facilitators in NBA history. But his defense is non-existent. Prior to the eye injury, Amare Stoudemire added a damn near automatic mid-range jump shot to his stellar athleticism. But his defense is non-existent. Neither player has ever been known for his great work on the “other” end. But Richardson has. In college, he was the Big Ten’s Defensive Player of the Year in his sophomore season. With his great scoring numbers in the league, we forget that Richardson was at one time a really good defender. Especially with Raja Bell gone, the Suns need him to re-capture that defensive energy while still maintaining his offensive output in order to compete in the West. That’s a tall order for him, but he’s shown in the past he’s up to the task.
10. Utah Jazz
MIP: Andrei Kirilenko
It was only a couple of years ago when AK47 put up these numbers: 15.3 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 3.2 bpg, 1.5 spg. That’s disgusting. In his defense, how do you even go up from there? While it’s true he never really found out for whatever reason, he really only needs to be a shade of his former self for the Jazz to get back into serious contention. With second best point guard in the world Deron Williams running the show and Carlos Boozer (for now) holding the fort down inside, Kirilenko doesn’t even need to average double-digits. If he just gets back to being that all-over-the-place player that made Jazz fans fall in love with him, then the Jazz could be really good. However, if he reverts back to the “I Can’t Even Beat Out C.J. Miles” Kirilenko, then the Jazz might be in danger of missing the playoffs. My guess is that they’ll be somewhere in between.
9. Atlanta Hawks
MIP: Jamal Crawford
One day when she’s old and wise, Cadence will use this gem to describe the intracacies of life to her kids and grandchildren: “Life is like a Jamal Crawford: you never know what you’re gonna get.” Corny, probably, but oh so true. How come a guy who can just go off for 50 at the drop of a hat has only averaged over 20 ppg once? Weird. Nonetheless, he can definitely help the Hawks take that next step. Last year in the playoffs, it was clear that it was Joe Johnson or bust down the stretch. Now, Atlanta has one of the best “give me the ^%$#in’ ball” players in the NBA to go along with a young and versatile front line in Crawford. They can’t beat any of the East’s Big 3 yet, but their time will come.
8. Portland Trailblazers
MIP: Greg Oden
Through all the injuries, all the foul trouble (3.9 per game is just an amazing number), all the columnist nit-picking, everything… Oden put up nine and seven last season while blocking a shot a night. Off the bench. Translation: at his absolute worst he’s better than a lot of centers in the league. But, if the Blazers want to take the next step, it mainly falls on Oden to take the next step. Brandon Roy is already there, becoming a much better NBA player than anybody thought he ever would, so what’s stopping Oden? I know this team is still young, but with that whole low-salary cap threatening to happen, this almost seems like a make or break year for this squad. And Oden.
7. Denver Nuggets
MIP: J.R. Smith
What I’m about to say is bold and controversial: Smith, talent-wise, is one of the top 10 offensive players in the NBA. Why he hasn’t put it all together yet remains a mystery to me, but he may very well be my favorite player in the NBA to watch when he’s not playing the Mavericks. He’s not off to the greatest of starts to this campaign, as he’ll be watching the first seven games in NBA dress code-friendly attire due to off-the-court problems. The Nuggets need Smith to take pressure off of Carmelo Anthony, especially with Chauncey Billups not getting any younger. Given that Smith starts the season on the bench and the Nuggets pretty much stood pat in the off-season, it’s safe for me to say that the Nuggs take a step back this season.
6. Dallas Mavericks
MIP: Dirk Nowitzki
You know, I think at some point tomorrow on my site I might publish a Long and Drawn Out Preview for the Mavs since they’re my favorite team and all, but that’s neither here nor there for right now (potential H1N1 cough, GO MAVS!!!!!!). Look, I can take a few angles here in terms of MIP. Josh Howard needs to get healthy (okay, so much for that in the near future); Shawn Marion needs to learn to fit in; Jason Kidd needs to find SOME way to be effective on the defensive end. Truthfully, it starts and ends with Dirk. He’s been great for both the Dallas franchise and the community and is a surefire Hall of Famer, but let’s face it: his leadership skills always come under fire, and fair or not, he needs to constantly play with that “now or never” mentality, because that’s what it’s come down to. People are saying the window of opportunity for a title is closed. If it’s open at all, he needs to jam his pinky in there and push up with all his might.
5. Boston Celtics
MIP: Kevin Garnett
Garnett is the archetypical MIP. When they won the title, it was because of Garnett’s production and toughness. When they flamed out against Orlando while an injured Garnett continually cursed up a storm to himself on the bench, it was because they missed Garnett’s production and toughness. Theoretically, it would be nice if the old KG re-emerged and put up redonkulous numbers across the board, but, now that the Celts have Rasheed Wallace to spell him, they just need his intensity. He’s the one who pushes Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo. However, because I’m not completely sold on Garnett’s health, I just can’t have them higher than 3rd in the East right now.
4. San Antonio Spurs
MIP: Manu Ginobili
If you really think that Tony Parker and Tim Duncan are the most important Spurs, than you obviously missed the Mavericks dismantling the San Antonio in the playoffs last season. Even as a diehard Mavs’ fan I can admit that Dallas goes from winning that series in five to losing that series in six if Ginobili is on the floor. He’s not their best player, but he’s their sparkplug, their wildcard who can change a game at the drop of a dime. He’s getting up there in age and he’s probably not as athletic as he was a few years ago, but if I was playing in a game where my life depended on the outcome, I’d want Ginobili. As far as the Spurs go, I like their off-season moves, but please don’t try to sell me on Richard Jefferson as being anything more than the 4th option on offense in crunch time. 15 a game is his absolute ceiling this season. PROP BET ALERT!!! PROP BET ALERT!!! I’ll take Anthony Morrow’s average over RJ this year. Bet me, stupid.
3. Orlando Magic
MIP: Vince Carter
I wanted to put them back in the Finals soooo bad, because on paper they are 1) more fun to watch then the Cavalier’s stagnant 1-4 offense, and 2) Carter/Kobe to me is a more intriguing Finals match-up. But, I digress. Pundits give the Carter acquisition mixed reviews, but I’m definitely pro-Carter. First off, he’s a million times better than Turkoglu, so he’s an upgrade. Second, he’s playing in his home state for the first time ever, and third, while homecomings can be rough (see, Griffey, Jr., Ken and Marbury, Stephon) he’s going to a great situation where, for once, it doesn’t neccesarily have to be all about him. He’s got the best center in the NBA (Dwight Howard), one of the best perimeter shooters (Rashard Lewis) and a guy he can share hair tips with (Marcin “Give Us Us Free” Gortat). However, it’s a team better built for the regular season, and I think someone gets some revenge, and that person would be…
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
MIP: LeBron James
Colin… shut up and watch the greatness…
Unfortunately, much to your delight, I do not have that greatness translating into a title for Cleveland. Good supporting cast at the guard spots (Mo Williams, Anthony Parker, Delonte West), bodies down low (Shaquille O’Neal, Anderson Varejao and Zydrunas Ilgauskas) to stop Bynum and Gasol… but in the end, there’s really only…
1. Los Angeles Lakers
MIP: Kobe Bryant
True, Ron Artest is the biggest wildcard in the history of wildcards, the equivalent of AK vs. pocket 7s for every last dollar you own. However, if anyone can tame the volatile Artest, it’s Bryant. Say what you will about Bryant’s mileage, but at 31, he’s still got at least three more years of top five in the league-type play left in him. That, plus the fact that he’s got arguably the best four man in the league in Pau Gasol and a steady cast of characters off the bench that just keep coming at you in waves, and what does that equal?
Repeat.
BASKETBALL IS BACK, BABY!!!!!!
NBA Preview Archives
30. Sacramento Kings
29. New Jersey Nets
28. Milwaukee Bucks
26. New York Knicks
24. Houston Rockets
22. Indiana Pacers
A Pop Culture Break
by Colin Donohue
So this has nothing to do with sports. Maybe it could be categorized as gaming. But regardless, when a video that must be seen comes along, well, then, I feel obligated to share it. This is a pop culture break that is overtly nerdy, and yet, totally awesome.
A Blog Sabbatical is Not Recommended
by Colin Donohue
Well, it happened again, as it always does, as it will forever be. I stepped away from the blog for what I initially intended to be a week, and it turned into a little more than a month. Remember my last post? At least I left on what I consider a fairly humorous note. But the whole time I was gone, I still had this tug, this voice, this entity trying to pull me back to PnP. Finally, I relented. So here I am.
Why was I gone so long? Well, I got into a pattern here at Elon of giving my students two writing assignments a week (thus requiring me to grade 36 stories a week, in addition to other class activities), I had university commitments on the weekends, I had an opportunity to get away for a couple of days with my wife and I had a conference to attend in Washington, D.C. I was keeping pretty busy, and when I had some down time, I simply needed to veg. But I’m completely caught up on all my work now. And to that I say, HUZZAH! I hunkered down, got everything done, took it day by day, kept my head in the game, never turned back, always looked forward, did what I had to do, etc., etc. (My cliche tribute to athletes everywhere.) But I always stayed positive and knew I would make my way back to PnP.
I should also mention I spent my time away watching hockey. A lot of hockey. Justin’s got this whole NBA thing pretty locked up. His expertise in that area is far greater than mine, so I’ll chime in from time to time. But if you want some NBA insights, you go to Justin. If you want some LeBron James vitriol or arguments as to why I think Stephen Curry is not the superstar everyone thinks he is, you come to me.
But if you want some NHL analysis, I’m your guy. I’ve started following the sport with more fervor in the last couple of years. It strikes a fantastic balance between the physical and the finesse more than any other sport. And for years I’ve contended that the hockey postseason is more exciting than any other professional sport’s playoffs. I stand firmly by those comments to this day. So yes, we’re nearly a month into the NHL season (it started early because the players will break in the middle of the season to participate in the Olympics), but I’m still going to give you my quick and dirty preview. Here’s how I think the conferences will shake out. (And this is how I would’ve ranked them heading into the season. I have not accounted for how teams have started.)
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlantic Division
- Pittsburgh Penguins: The Stanley Cup champs deserve the respect. Missing Rod Scuderi and Hal Gill on the blue line could affect them adversely, though.
- Philadelphia Flyers: The addition of Chris Pronger to the defense and Ray Emery in goal makes them steady on the back end. The emergence of Jeff Carter as a big-time goal scorer and the return of Daniel Briere from injury will spur the offense.
- New York Rangers: The Rangers added a premier scorer in Marian Gaborik. They’re deeper in the forward ranks with a more explosive power play. They already have a strong defense a top-flight goaltender, so they’re a threat.
- New Jersey Devils: Yeah, they have Marty Brodeur, but they’re aging rapidly and lack some scoring punch.
- New York Islanders: They have a couple of nice youngsters, including John Tavares, but they’re not a good hockey team.
Northeast Division
- Boston Bruins: Solid in the back with Zdeno Chara on D and Tim Thomas in goal. Good forward depth with gritty players.
- Montreal Canadiens: Brought in some crafty veterans to chip in a few goals and still have a respectable defense and quality young goalie. No one will wow you, but they’re solid.
- Buffalo Sabres: Coach Lindy Ruff usually has his teams playing well. They still have Ryan Miller in net and Thomas Vanek (when healthy) up front, so there’s potential, but they’re not a big threat.
- Ottawa Senators: Unloading Dany Heatley didn’t exactly help their offense. His loss will be felt, but it should free up Daniel Alfredsson more.
- Toronto Maple Leafs: Ugh. That’s really all you can say. Ugh.
Alex Ovechkin could lead the Caps to a Stanley Cup title this year.
Southeast Division
- Washington Capitals: Possibly the best team in the Eastern Conference, the Caps have the best player in the world (Alex Ovechkin) and tremendous scoring depth. They’re still a little soft on the blue line, and questions remain in goal.
- Carolina Hurricanes: There’s never anything sexy about this team. They’re a gritty club that always makes it to the playoffs and wins a couple of rounds because of Cam Ward, their fabulous goalie.
- Atlanta Thrashers: They’ve added some scoring punch with Nik Antropov and some defensive help with Pavel Kubina to couple with the already dangerous Ilya Kovalchuk, but this team still is not good enough to compete for the top spot in the division.
- Tampa Bay Lightning: Too many youngsters, questionable defensemen and project goalies. Vinny Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis won’t be enough to spur this team to the postseason.
- Florida Panthers: Certainly a team with great speed. But they’re soft in the corners and poor on the blue line.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Central Division
- Chicago Blackhawks: This is a potent offensive team that’s solid defensively. Cristobal Huet is iffy in goal, but they have so much fire power already, that when Marian Hossa joins them after injury, they’re only going to be that much better. It’s probably the year they unseat the Red Wings.
- Detroit Red Wings: You’re foolish if you bet against Detroit, one of the NHL’s best teams historically. But they lost Hossa to the ‘Hawks and Jiri Hudler to Russia, so they’re not as deep as they once were. And they’re only getting older in the back and in net. Still, they’re the most disciplined team in the league, and they know how to win late.
- Columbus Blue Jackets: A nice up and coming team with a legitimate scorer (Rick Nash) and a stud young goalie (Steve Mason).
- St. Louis Blues: Made a surprising run at the end of the year, but they’re still a little shaky. Their lack of offensive depth is disconcerting.
- Nashville Predators: A nice defensive, trapping hockey team. But when your best offensive option is a defenseman (Shea Weber), then you might have issues scoring.
Northwest Division
- Calgary Flames: They still have 30-goal getter Jarome Iginla, tough defenseman Dion Phaneuf and quality goalie Mikka Kiprusoff. They also added scoring threat Jay Bouwmeester to the blue line.
- Vancouver Canucks: The Sedin twins carry this team offensively and Roberto Luongo shuts things down in goal. Scoring from the last couple of lines is suspect, but this is a solid club.
- Colorado Avalanche: The Avs came on at the end of last season, and they should continue to play fairly well. They are not a great hockey team, but they have hope because of guys like 18-year-old Matt Duchene and 23-year-old Paul Statsny.
- Minnesota Wild: The Wild simply have trouble scoring. They’re disciplined on defense, but they really have trouble putting the puck in the net.
- Edmonton Oilers: Nikolai Khabibulan will continue to try to reclaim his once proud career in Edmonton, but he looks shakier every year and there’s really no one around him.
Heatley adds more scoring to an already potent offensive Sharks team.
Pacific Division
- San Jose Sharks: Too much talent here on offense, defense and in goal not to consider them the best in the West. Dany Heatley only makes them scarier.
- Anaheim Ducks: A nice young team with some physical players at the forward position. They have questions in goal because it’s unclear if Jonas Hiller or J.S. Giguere can be the steady presence they need.
- Los Angeles Kings: They solidified their blue line by adding Rod Scuderi and Jonathan Quick is an up and coming goalie, but they’re not close to San Jose or Anaheim.
- Dallas Stars: Marty Turco seems to be toast as a No. 1 goalie, which leaves them thin in the back. Mike Modano is still a nice offensive player, but he’s not getting any younger.
- Phoenix Coyotes: Oh, the poor Coyotes. Tragic.
EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF SEEDS:
- Washington Capitals
- Pittsburgh Penguins
- Boston Bruins
- Philadelphia Flyers
- New York Rangers
- Carolina Hurricanes
- Montreal Canadiens
- Atlanta Thrashers
WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF SEEDS:
- San Jose Sharks
- Chicago Blackhawks
- Calgary Flames
- Detroit Red Wings
- Vancouver Canucks
- Anaheim Ducks
- Columbus Blue Jackets
- Los Angeles Kings
EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS:
Quarterfinals
Capitals (1) def. Thrashers (8)
Penguins (2) def. Canadiens (7)
Hurricanes (6) def. Bruins (3)
Flyers (4) def. Rangers (5)
Semifinals
Capitals (1) def. Hurricanes (6)
Flyers (4) def. Penguins (2)
Finals
Capitals (1) def. Flyers (4)
WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS:
Quarterfinals
Sharks (1) def. Kings (8)
Blackhawks (2) def. Blue Jackets (7)
Flames (3) def. Ducks (6)
Red Wings (4) def. Canucks (5)
Seminfinals
Sharks (1) def. Red Wings (4)
Blackhawks (2) def. Flames (3)
Finals
Blackhawks (2) def. Sharks (1)
STANLEY CUP FINALS:
Capitals (1) def. Blackhawks (2)
So there you have it. Those were my preseason choices. If I were choosing today, from scratch, I’d probably make a couple of changes. But that’s what I would’ve written a month ago.
Long, Drawn Out But Very Personable NBA Previews: Golden State Warriors
By Justin Cherot
I just knew this would happen. I was flowing through these at the beginning, but within the last week we’ve seen the inevitable “Justin Cherot Stall”, which if you’re a follower of Live From the Nosebleeds (no posts since the day after the NBA Draft) you should be quite accustomed to by now. However, I’m going to buck the trend and finish these. I promise.
If you’ve read the first several (see the archive at the bottom of the page if you haven’t), you know the drill by now. Team by team, player by player previews going in a predicted order of finish. I’m in my “teams on the outside looking in” category, and that will continue with my 2nd favorite team in the NBA to watch on a nightly basis, the Golden State Warriors.
Star
Not too many in the NBA have swag like Stephen Jackson. Photo courtesy the basketblogger.com
Interestingly enough, this is probably the first team where I had to do a back and forth debate with myself about who the star of this team was. In the end, I flipped a coin and chose the artist formerly known as Captain Jax (get it, because he’s no longer a captain?). I know Monta Ellis is probably, in terms of talent, the best player on this team, but Jackson is, for better or worse, the symbol of this squad. I love his “F it” brand of basketball, and you can never go wrong with a player who is unafraid to take a shot regardless of the situation. The problem? Dude no longer wants to be there. He didn’t even flinch when the Warriors fined him 25K for publicly declaring his desire to be traded. Funny, you’d think with the Warriors brand of basketball players would die to go to the Bay Area, but Don Nelson has this weird effect on good players. Once you’re on his poopy list, it’s hard to get off. Hence, we have the first star that will probably be gone by the trade deadline. While he’s here, though, it would be cool if he worked on his defense.
The Other Starters
Yeah, the Warriors were pretty darn bad last year, but I think a lot of that had to do with Ellis’ suspension. If he’s healthy and on the court and off of mopeds, the Warriors would have won at least eight more games. I still like him far more off the ball then I like him as a lead guard, but scoring guards are still en vogue in the NBA, and not too many can get to the tin like he can. Ultimately, his biggest problem right now is that he’s far too reckless with his body. It seems like whenever I see him play there’s some part of his body taped up from nightly paint encounters. He has a nice mid-range game, but without the luxury of a top-flight point guard getting him easier shots (Baron Davis, maybe?) we didn’t see it as much last season. Whether he likes it or not, I think Stephen Curry is the point guard of the Warriors’ future. It’s up to Ellis if he wants to be off the ball or not. While he’s here though, he should work on his defense.
In a league full of players, I don’t think there’s a more intriguing specimen in the NBA right now than Randolph. In the last 15 to 20 years, I don’t think I’ve seen anyone with such a versatile skill set at his size who plays with more energy. If you play him at the four, which is where he’s slated to start, he’s unguardable on the perimeter. If you play him at the three, he’ll be the mayor of back ‘em down city. Hell, Nelson even experimeted with Randolph at the one spot during summer league games. What does that tell you about his versatility? Early front-runner for Most Improved Player in my mind. At 19, this kid has absolutely no ceiling… but he should look to improve his on-ball defense.
It seems like he’s been in the league forever, and yet I had to do a double-take when I looked at his age. Dude is only 23 coming off a career season where he averaged a double-double. He’s the perfect center for this team, a guy who won’t complain about his touches and just gets garbage points. Also a bonus: he plays a little defense.
He may be the best cosmetic starter in the league. Azubuike is an athletic two-guard who can light it up when given the opportunity. The problem? With Corey Maggette, Anthony Morrow and Stephen Curry all competing for minutes, Azubuike could eventually end up being the forgotten player in Nelson’s weird rotation.
Bench
Maggette reminds me a lot of Jerry Stackhouse during his years in Dallas. Yes, he’s great off the bench, but you can tell that he absolutely hates coming off the bench and thinks he could start for a contender. The difference? Maggette is actually right. Physically he’s a nightmare for any opposing two guard or swingman to check. He’s one of those guys who can get to the rim whenever he wants, and he’ll either finish or get fouled. Only thing: he needs to work on his defense.
Even on a team full of scorers, this dude just stands out. As a rookie, he led the NBA in three-point percentage, and this past summer he made a mockery of summer league defenses. His play has basically made more than one current swingman on the Warriors’ roster expendable (Jackson? Maggette?). I can easily see him going for 16+ this season off the bench, but it also wouldn’t surprise me to see him crack the starting line-up at some point this season. If only he could play defense.
Poor guy. Looks like he’s going to miss the majority of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. That sucks: he was probably the Warriors’ best interior defender.
I can’t even hide the manlove anymore: Curry is my favorite current NBA player. Maybe it’s due to our relatively slender statures and our penchant for making deep, game-changing threes. Personally, I think it’s because he’s the classic underdog. Nobody wanted him. Then once they realized he was good, everybody hated on him. Admittedly, even I’ve waffled back and forth between whether or not he could be an effective pro. A year and a half ago, I said he was a cross between Steve Kerr and Juan Dixon. But that was before he played the point at Davidson last year and displayed very high basketball IQ and an ability to get his shot off against pressure. I caught him in a pre-season game against Phoenix, and with the game on the line, he was the one with the ball in his hands, and everytime he made the right decision, whether it was hitting the open man with a jaw-dropping pass or setting himself up for the J. I’m sold: eventually Curry will be an all-star. As long as he doesn’t cry about the lack of minutes he’ll get this season (because that’s how Nellie does his rookies), Steph will be fine. Of course, he has to learn to play better defense.
Every team needs a Turiaf, a guy who will come in and just stir things up, whether it’s diving for loose balls or dunking emphatically. Beyond being a hustle guy, Turiaf has an underrated skill set for a guy his size. He shoots the ball well from 18 and in, plus he sees the floor very well. The Warriors will need him for fairly big minutes off the bench this year.
Please do the world a favor and legally change the spelling of your first name.
There are many teams in the NBA that can use a guy like Watson. Too bad the Warriors have pretty much no place for him.
Take everything I said about Watson, switch names, and you have my opinion on Law. Only he doesn’t defend as well.
More like “Not as fast as I used to be, which was kind of overrated in the first place” Claxton.
For the past 10 years, George has been the token “replace this guy with any halfway decent player not in the NBA, give him the same minutes and he’d put up the same stats” player in the league. Why no GM has realized this I have no idea. I mean, he can’t even play defense…
… which makes him no different than 80% of this roster. And, despite my love affair with this team’s brand of basketball, that will be their downfall and why they’re ranked so low on the totem poll.
NBA Preview Archives
30. Sacramento Kings
29. New Jersey Nets
28. Milwaukee Bucks
26. New York Knicks
24. Houston Rockets
22. Indiana Pacers
Long, Drawn Out But Very Personable NBA Previews: Indiana Pacers
By Justin Cherot
I just knew this would happen. I was flowing through these at the beginning, but within the last week we’ve seen the inevitable “Justin Cherot Stall”, which if you’re a follower of Live From the Nosebleeds (no posts since the day after the NBA Draft) you should be quite accustomed to by now. However, I’m going to buck the trend and finish these. I promise.
If you’ve read the first several (see the archive at the bottom of the page if you haven’t), you know the drill by now. Team by team, player by player previews going in a predicted order of finish. I’m in my “teams on the outside looking in” category, and that will continue with the Indiana Pacers.
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Danny Granger's rise to the top was unexpected. So would be a Pacers' playoff appearance this season. Photo by Ron Hoskins, Getty Images.
“So while the world goes Drake crazy, I’m Danny Granger just workin’ at a different pace…”- Wale
Drake has dominated the airwaves, almost like Andrew Bogut, Chris Paul, and Deron Williams pretty much dominated the headlines leading up to the 2005 NBA Draft. Granger had to hear the likes of Martell Webster, Channing Frye, Rashand McCants and Joey Graham called to the podium before him on draft day. Question… did those four guys I previously mentioned get anywhere near Granger’s 26 a game last year COMBINED? Talk about a surprising rise to the upper-echelon of NBA players. Now comes the hard part for Granger: taking his game to the next level and getting this team to the playoffs. He has some interesting pieces around him, but that’s just writer-speak for saying that he needs a little bit more help. If any of the teams in the top eight in the East get bit by the injury bug, it’s not totally out of the question for them to make the playoffs this year.
The Other Starters
You know, I banged on him last year for being vastly overpaid, but I think by averaging 14, 12 and shooting a ridiculous 45% from three probably does warrant his current salary. Those stats surprisingly made him the 19th most effective player in the NBA according to PER standards. I don’t quite see him putting up last year’s numbers again, but I still think he’ll be a very effective second option for the Pacers.
It’s hard to question a player’s ability at 16 and six assists, but to be brutally honest, I thought Ford would be a much better NBA player. Not too many point guards in the NBA can mimic his quickness and athletic ability, but two things have hampered him: 1) his ability to stay healthy and 2) his shooting. For those two reasons he’s been on the hotseat as a starting point guard throughout his entire NBA career. He’s a capable shooter, and the reason I know that is because he shoots it really well from the free throw line. It doesn’t take a genius to realize that it’s a different kind of shot, but at least his mechanics are good. With him it’s just a matter of knocking down shots. Plus, as quick as we are to write off NBA point guards, Ford is only 26. Hell, he’s younger than me! Are you guys ready to write me off yet?
Don’t answer that.
Foster is one tough cookie who will shoot solid percentages year in and year out, but I think this will be the season that Roy Hibbert eventually takes over the starting job. The best thing he can do for this team, outside of his steady play, is to be a mentor for the kids. It’s all about the children.
Call me nuts, but I’ve always felt that the Rush family becomes less deserving of an opportunity to play in the NBA with each propsect, and yet the opposite appears to be true. Jaron was a great prospect at UCLA but couldn’t stick in the league. Kareem is better than Brandon but couldn’t even get minutes over him in Indiana. And now, Brandon gets his chance to shine as the eventual, if not opening night, starting two guard for the Pacers. Pacers’ brass is crazy about him but I’m just not sure he handles the ball well enough to be the answer at that position.
Bench
If this were NBA Live, I would consider starting Dunleavy at two just to have my best players on the floor, but in real life we know what would happen: he would get absolutely abused on the other end. Still, I think L’il Dun will garner some consideration for 6th Man of the Year if he’s healthy enough. Last year in the last quarter of the season he returned to the court and, despite difficulty finding his stroke, still managed to average 15 a game.
Hibbert would look like a slow, clumsy big man if you ever passed him on the street, but then he’d definitely change your mind when you saw him on the court. He’ll never beat Justin Cherot in a 40 yard dash, but he’s got good touch around the basket and his footwork at this point in his career is ahead of the curve. Like most young players, he’ll have to get better defensively in order to stay on the court and out of foul trouble, but Hibbert will be a good center down the road, possibly as early as this year.
I had to do a double-take looking at his stats. This man shot 65% from three point range last year!? Upon further review, it was on 17 attempts, but that begs the following question: why don’t you put it up more, son? Flipping to serious mode, the Pacers brought him in for his defense, and slowly but surely he’s becoming a lockdown defender in this league. He’s not a 25 minute a night kind of guy, but if you need a stop he needs to be on the floor.
Watson is like Sage Rosenfels in a lot of respects. Everybody you talk to says he manages the game well, but nobody is dying to have him as their starter. If he does start, that means things are getting desperate. With that said,both the Minnesota Vikings and the Indiana Pacers are hoping that their number one guy can hold up to the rigors of a long season.
How the number 12 pick in the draft ended up on a major commercial before the number one pick is somewhat confusing, but regardless people have been so quick to bang on Hansbrough for his lack of upside. They may be right, but I don’t think there are too many players in the NBA who will work harder. Because he’s not an athletic stiff, I think he’ll eventually turn that work ethic into a solid NBA career.
As a player, I like McRoberts more than Ty-Hans, but as mentioned above it’s about work ethic, and that’s where the AT&T spokesman has him kicked.
So far in going through with these previews, I’ve been hard-pressed to find better players who will be glued to the bench than this bunch. Diener is probably a better player than Watson, but it goes back to that whole game manager thing. Although Diener is a much better shooter, he’s more of a Rex Grossman type of back-up.
I know Head is kind of a one-trick pony, but for his first two seasons in the NBA he performed that trick pretty well. He dropped off a bit the following three seasons, but in my opinion not to the point of end-of-the-bench exhile. Hopefully he can regain that form here with the Pacers, and if pre-season minute distribution is any indication, he’s well on his way.
For better or worse, Price plays like a poor man’s Jamaal Tinsley.
PROP BET ALERT!!! PROP BET ALERT!!! I will take the over on Jones getting three points per game this season.
NBA Preview Archives
30. Sacramento Kings
29. New Jersey Nets
28. Milwaukee Bucks
26. New York Knicks
24. Houston Rockets
Long, Drawn Out But Very Personable NBA Previews: Charlotte Bobcats
By Justin Cherot
I just knew this would happen. I was flowing through these at the beginning, but within the last week we’ve seen the inevitable “Justin Cherot Stall”, which if you’re a follower of Live From the Nosebleeds (no posts since the day after the NBA Draft) you should be quite accustomed to by now. However, I’m going to buck the trend and finish these. I promise.
If you’ve read the first several (see the archive at the bottom of the page if you haven’t), you know the drill by now. Team by team, player by player previews going in a predicted order of finish. I’m in my “teams on the outside looking in” category, and that will continue with the Charlotte Bobcats.
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Gerald Wallace sits down for a talk with the greatest orator of our time, Michael Jordan. Photo courtesy slamonline.com
The fact that Wallace is this team’s star is perhaps the most troubling and telling metaphor for this squad: while his stats are certainly solid, Wallace is a good player, but not great. He would be terrific on a team with an established star or two to play off of. He’s kind of like Shawn Marion in that regard, who needed Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire to truly be effective. On a positive note, with both he and Raja Bell guarding the opposition’s best wing players, playing the Bobcats this year will be a tough venture.
The Other Starters
If Felton were taken in any other draft, people would probably be less harsh about his development to this point. The fact of the matter is that while Felton is still a good NBA point guard, he just hasn’t improved very much. After his rookie season I even made the mistake of calling the Jazz stupid for taking Deron Williams over Felton. Wrong. I’m stupid for ever calling Williams a fatboy who would never make it. However, why his starting job is in danger befuddles me. You better be damn sure the other guy is better if you’re going to demote a guy who averaged 14 and seven dimes last year. I’m just not sure D.J. Augustin is better, but ESPN.com sure is, having Augustin listed as the starter and Felton not even in the rotation. I hope that’s a typo.
Everybody is high off the Diaw fumes again after he returned to his 2005-2006 form following a trade to the Bobcats. I’m like Bill Clinton: I don’t inhale. He’s a versatile guy and all who puts up good numbers across the board, but before we get all excited, let’s remember that he did so for the Bobcats, a team that lacks scoring punch for lack of a better word. I like him for a fantasy draft, sure, but as a player? Eh.
Confession: I knew Bell would someday be a dependable NBA starter. No, I didn’t find out when he played a role in shutting Kobe Bryant down during the 2001 NBA Finals. I actually found out through the grapevine that, before he blew up, he visited College Park’s remarkable Campus Recreation Center in 2002 and absolutely destroyed cats. It’s not that he simply killed the competition, it’s HOW he killed the competition, from showing off his improved jumper to leaving ankles on the floor. That performance eventually manifest itself into the Bell that we see today: a great defender who has become lights out from the perimeter.
Chandler’s offensive repetoire consists of the following: catching oops, follow-up dunks. That is all, which is sad given the amount of athleticism he’s blessed with. Looking back on it, all three players picked highly in that draft–Chandler, Eddy Curry and biggest bust in the history of busts Kwame Brown–would have benefitted from going to college. So, for everybody bitching and moaning about the NBA’s age limit… shut up and watch these guys play.
Bench
I still can’t get over the fact that they straight-up left Felton off the depth chart. Anyway, I like Augustin as a player, but again, I just don’t think he’s better than Felton. I foresaw this point guard controversy developing the second he got drafted. He’s the latest example of another bad Michael Jordan executive decision. If he had been smart and just taken Jerryd Bayless (who I think will eventually be a better player anyway), the controversy wouldn’t have existed because you could pitch Bayless as a combo guard. At 5′11″, there’s little (no pun intended) combo existent: Augustin will make his money as a point guard in this league. Over/under on him ridiculously being crowned the starter: 20 games.
Underachiever? Certainly. Better NBA injury story? Unlikely. Seriously, though, if he stays off snowboards and out of trouble, he could help this team with his versatility.
Officially the unsung hero of the Dallas Mavericks from 2005-2007. His defense on Tim Duncan during the 2006 Western Conference Finals was the reason that the Mavs got to the finals and eventually won it all… oh, wait, that’s right. I forgot that Tim Donaghy reffed that series and phantom fouls propelled the Miami Heat to victory. Oh, no, I don’t still think about that everyday as a Mavericks’ fan.
Henderson is officially on bust alert for two reasons:
- He dominated with his athleticism at the college level, but as a two guard in the NBA he’ll have to learn to handle the ball better.
- He went to Duke. Let me give you a short list of Duke busts: Bobby Hurley, Christian Laettner, William Avery, Trajan Langdon, Danny Ferry, Jason Williams (fate took over, otherwise he would have been solid).
I’m just saying… the odds are definitely not in his favor.
Bill Simmons is a great guy… just won’t return any of my e-mails. Or phone calls. Or tweets. Or door knocks. But, anyway, I bring that up because Ajinca is apparently a Lindsey Hunter All-Star. The premise? A male athlete that sounds like a hot female celebrity. Check out the list.
On a team devoid of true post players, Brown should at least battle for minutes.
If you’re big and have a little bit of touch around the basket, you can have a nice, long NBA career in the NBA. Mohammed proves such, having outlasted his Kentucky teammates Tony Delk and Antoine Walker. Good for him.
ESPN.com needs to fix their depth charts. Stat.
NBA Preview Archives
30. Sacramento Kings
29. New Jersey Nets
28. Milwaukee Bucks
26. New York Knicks
24. Houston Rockets
Long, Drawn Out But Very Personable NBA Previews: Houston Rockets
By Justin Cherot
THE NBA IS BAAAAAAAAAAAAACK!!!!!!!!!!
And, you know, we here at Pick and Pop try to keep it as fresh and quirky as possible. So, my plan for the next 32 (or some odd) days is to not break down how a team will do. That’s for sportswriters with degrees and such, although I guess a night before the season tips off Colin and I will do something like that.
Instead, I’m giving every single player in the league, even some guys that won’t even make the roster, a little ink. Because not all players are created (and adored) equally by yours truly, some will have much longer anecdotes/analysis or what have you than others. Case and point: would it be fair to give Dirk Nowitzki and Adam Morrison the same amount of space? I haven’t gotten that far yet, but I’m willing to bet I won’t do that.
I guess to make sure the pecking order of the NBA isn’t completely ruined, I’m going to go in ascending order in terms of how I predict the teams will finish. For the next nine or 10 posts, I’m going to be focusing on teams with an outside chance at making the playoffs but my gut says they will come up short. Next stop, the Houston Rockets.
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Better have the heating pads and ice packs ready, because chances are Tracy McGrady. Photo from itshowyouinflect.wordpress.com
When he’s on the court, there aren’t too many players in the NBA that can stop him from going off. You can make the argument that he has more range than any player in the NBA, and if you get up on him, his ball-handling ability either leaves his defender in the dust or he’ll concoct a seemingly impossible shot to counter your otherwise solid defense. The problem? 47, 71, 66, 35. Those are his games played in the last four seasons. Before, Houston didn’t mind because the team ran their offense through Yao Ming. But, with Ming sidelined indefinitely, the Rockets need their star to be healthy. And, as much as I root for guys coming off injury (remember, I was a Penny Hardaway fan growing up), I just can’t see that happening. That’s why I have the Rockets ranked so low.
The Other Starters
Scola trumps the “Europeans aren’t tough” stereotype. Sure, he won’t put up gaudy defensive numbers, but he holds his own every night and is also a nice pick and pop option up top. With Ming out, he’ll definitely produce solid offensive numbers.
There is absolutely no way Brooks is 6′0″. If he sat in front of me in class, let’s just say I would be able to see the board just fine. But, while he’s diminuitive in stature, he’s proven to be a pretty good point guard thus far in his young career. Not too many ones in the league are quicker than him. With more minutes available now that Rafer Alston is gone, I think he’ll flirt with around 18 point per game and six dimes.
Ariza picked a perfect time to blow up. Nothing like a good playoff run to help you get overpaid. It’s hard to hate on anybody in the NBA that actually plays defense, but essentially they traded him for Ron Artest, who contrary to popular belief is actually a much better defender and a much better player offensively. Yeah, not having Ming is going to hurt this team, but I think giving up on Artest will ultimately be the move that drops this team so far because if T-Mac goes down, the Rockets don’t have anybody that can really create their own shot.
I remember seeing, “Rockets sign David Andersen” scroll down the ESPN Bottom Line one day in the off-season, followed by, “He is now the only true center on the roster”. Never good when the normally objective Bottom Line has to throw in a disclaimer. I was going to bang on him, too, but then two things happened: 1)I realized it’s unfair to bang on someone you’ve never seen play, and 2) Judging by his stats in the pre-season, he may be better than just a standard stop gap solution.
Bench
Well, if it isn’t Mr. Intangibles himself. No, he won’t split the defense and throw down in traffic, and no, he won’t can three-pointers off the dribble in an opponent’s face, and no, he won’t even block two shots a game. But, he does everything else that a team can ask for. I still harbor ill feelings towards him, but that’s just a Terp fan thing. GMs probably wish they could get 12 Battiers… or maybe that’s just the Warriors.
Landry is that player that doesn’t look like he should be in the NBA but somehow ends up putting up good numbers in limited minutes for a good team. I would call it the “Eduardo Najera Effect”, except that Najera has never had a season quite as effective as Landry had last season. Very quietly, the Rockets are very dangerous at the four spot.
If you’re a teenager or in your early 20’s, you probably only know Brent Barry as “token solid white guy who can shoot and doesn’t make mistakes”. That’s the Barry of now. Does anybody still remember Barry circa 1995?
Thank you, alfredo90, for bring me back, but do “Dem Jeans” have to do with Barry? Song choice, man. Song choice.
Lowry is a tough point guard. If the NBA was like the NFL, then Aaron Brooks is kind of like Chris Johnson and this guy is Lendale White. Very good defender who can also get into the lane and finish at the other end. Truth be told, while he’s certainly not my type of player so to speak, I like him more than Brooks. But, since I don’t coach the Rockets, looks like Lowry will be the White to Brooks’ Johnson. Please don’t take that the wrong way.
If T-Mac is healthy, then Budinger is on the wrong team and will get ridiculous bench-splinters this year. Fortunately for him, that’s a big “if”. I like Budinger, and to steal an old line of mine (is it stealing if it’s mine?), he reminds me a little bit of a more athletic Mike Dunleavy, Jr. Three years ago if I had said that it would have meant Budinger was a surefire bust, but now that Dunleavy (when healthy) is rounding into a solid NBA player, there’s hope for Budinger.
Not too many players will work harder, but by the time Cadence is five–maybe sooner–she will have learned a more effective way to shoot free throws.
If the Rockets can somehow hang around the playoff conversation, I doubt Taylor will have much to do with it. However, with Barry as McGrady’s primary back-up at the two spot, Taylor may get some work especially if the Rockets start to fade.
Kids, if you work hard and are blessed with a gene that makes you fairly tall, you too can someday make a living playing basketball. All jokes aside, Pops played 13 minutes a game and grabbed five boards. That’s actually a very impressive RPM rate.
The funny thing is if I were 6′10″, I’d probably play the exact same way.
At this present time, there are about four players I’d want immediately tested for HGH or steroids. After averaging nearly 15 boards a game in summer league, Dorsey is one of them.
What, he is still on the roster, right? PROP BET ALERT! PROP BET ALERT! Who wants to give me action on number of threes Zyndrunas Ilgauskas hits vs. how many games Yao Ming plays? Because I think Ming will find the court this season eventually. On the other side, I would think Ilgauskas would hit at least two or three.
NBA Preview Archives
30. Sacramento Kings
29. New Jersey Nets
28. Milwaukee Bucks
26. New York Knicks
Long, Drawn Out But Very Personable NBA Previews: Oklahoma City Thunder
By Justin Cherot
THE NBA IS BAAAAAAAAAAAAACK!!!!!!!!!!
And, you know, we here at Pick and Pop try to keep it as fresh and quirky as possible. So, my plan for the next 32 (or some odd) days is to not break down how a team will do. That’s for sportswriters with degrees and such, although I guess a night before the season tips off Colin and I will do something like that.
Instead, I’m giving every single player in the league, even some guys that won’t even make the roster, a little ink. Because not all players are created (and adored) equally by yours truly, some will have much longer anecdotes/analysis or what have you than others. Case and point: would it be fair to give Dirk Nowitzki and Adam Morrison the same amount of space? I haven’t gotten that far yet, but I’m willing to bet I won’t do that.
I guess to make sure the pecking order of the NBA isn’t completely ruined, I’m going to go in ascending order in terms of how I predict the teams will finish. For the next nine or 10 posts, I’m going to be focusing on teams with an outside chance at making the playoffs but my gut says they’re not quite there… yet. Perfect segue to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
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Kevin Durant had a monster season last year, and at 25, dude is only going to get better. Photo from Pacejmiller's WordPress page.
Despite my upbringing as Mrs. Cherot’s son, I’m not hardcore into math. However, I do like making inferences based off numbers and people who do such, so you can understand why I like John Hollinger’s PER ratings. In case you’re boycotting my links, they basically say that stats by themselves don’t tell the whole story on a player’s effectiveness, taking into account both positive and negative plays and balling everything into one value, it helps further analyze how good a player is. LeBron “Colin’s Secret Crush” James was first last year 34.5; Donte Greene of the Kings was dead last at 5.1. Well, in a testament to how people expect Durant to blow up even more than he did last year, Durant is projected to be the fifth most effective player in the NBA. And, why not? Anyone with an appetite for shooting can average 25 a game: just ask Allen Iverson. But it’s Durant’s percentages that jump off the page to me. The clear cut number one offensive option on his team still managed to shoot nearly 48% from the field, 42% from three-point range and 85% from the free throw line. And he’s only 25, meaning he has room not only for his skinny frame to grow, but for his game to grow as well. Yes, I have the Thunder ranked pretty low, but would it surprise me to see them make a run at a playoff spot? Not with this dude on their squad.
The Other Starters
If Darren Collison hadn’t been injured to start the 2007-2008 college basketball season, who knows if Westbrook would even be in the league? What a surreal couple of years for this kid. Started one year in high school and parlayed that into a scholarship to UCLA. Started one year at UCLA and parlayed that into what many people thought was a reach at 4th overall (personally I was screaming at the TV for them to take Jerryd Bayless). And now here he is, one year deep into his NBA career, coming off a season where he scored 15 a game without being able to shoot the ball. He’s going to be downright scary in three seasons. Of course, he eventually needs to learn how to shoot, but the Thunder will give him every opportunity to grow and learn.
I always figured that Green would be a better NBA player than a college player, especially since he was trapped in one of the slowest-paced offensive sets in the country (meaning we should definitely watch out for DaJuan Summers). One thing he did take away from Georgetown was his ability to see the floor and think one step ahead of the competition. He’s not going to blow you away with any one particular skill set, and for that reason Green will probably remain one of the most underrated young players in the league. But I got your back, Jeff. I’ll show you love. You deserve it with the way you play, sir.
Everytime I watch Thabo play I’m intrigued by his length and defensive prowess. On occasion he even makes moves offensively that lead you to believe that he could be really good. However, numbers…don’t… lie. No idea why I chose to use elipses there but whatever: he’s a cosmetic starter, and I look for James Harden to wash the foundation off his face early in the season.
There was a time in Krstic’s career when I thought he’d be one of the best centers of his generation, but like most young people, he went to Europe. And he hasn’t been the same since. He’s only 26, so there’s plenty of time for him to still develop into that dominant kind of center. But, at the very least, he can score better than most centers in the NBA.
Bench
In many ways, Harden personifies what many people perceive about the 2009 draft class: he’s a nice player, but nothing about him absolutely knocks you out. At his peak, I think he’ll be a rich man’s Morris Peterson (even more perfect because he’s a lefty!). There’s absolutely nothing wrong with that, but you’re going to be disappointed if you think he’ll ever become a superstar.
It’s sad that we never really got to see how good Livingston could have been. He wasn’t setting the world on fire early in his career, but every now and then we would see flashes of brilliance. His court vision was mature beyond his years. You could really sense that he was starting to get it. And then…
I can’t even tell you how many times I’ve seen that video, but every single time I watch it I just cringe. Quite possibly the worst sports related injury I’ve ever watched. The fact that he’s even playing basketball–hell, the fact that he’s walking without a cane–is amazing to me. Still a solid point guard, but man, you just have to wonder “what if” sometimes.
I don’t know if this is a compliment to Collison or a diss to Mark Madsen, but Nick Collison is basically Mark Madsen with talent. He just works and works. For a player who I thought was somewhat limited coming out of college, he’s had multiple seasons where he’s flirted with double-doubles. He won’t do that this year, but he will give the Thunder energy off the bench, which they desperately need.
As Morton said to Horton in Horton Hears a Who, “Dude, you are a warrior poet.” I have a three-year old. What do you think I’m watching all day, the Mavericks on ESPN Classic? Sometimes even I need a break from basketball.
How come Ollie, who has never averaged more than eight points per game or five assists per game, can find a way to stick in the league for 12 years while Ed Cota, who took his team to three Final Fours in four years and proved he could run a team, has to stumble around Europe looking for work? Just saying.
Scouts loved him at Washington State, but I didn’t really see him do anything there that would warrant him being on an NBA roster. For whatever reason, he’s one of those players that NBA Live players put in their line-up in online games just to prove that they’re basketball savvy. I usually beat those guys. And, in case you were wondering, yes, I did try to get NBA Live before it hit the streets, and no, I was not successful, but, yes, I will be getting Cadence dressed to go to the mall first thing in the morning.
People are banging on this kid already because he underachieved at Ohio State. People forget that he’s 7′0″ and he’s only 20.
He could end up turning into an offensive-minded Danny Fortson. This is a good thing.
Quick question: would you rather have “No Photo Available” under your player profile or would you rather have them post you wearing a red New York Yankees cap? Keep in mind this is ESPN.com and not Facebook.
By the way, if you don’t see a preview for “Team X” tomorrow, it’s for two reasons: 1) I have school, I can’t make you guys marvel at my insane writing ability for free too much longer, and 2) NBA LIIIIIIIIIIVE!!!!!!!!! ‘Nuff said.
NBA Preview Archives
30. Sacramento Kings
29. New Jersey Nets
28. Milwaukee Bucks
26. New York Knicks
Long, Drawn Out But Very Personable NBA Previews: New York Knicks
By Justin Cherot
THE NBA IS BAAAAAAAAAAAAACK!!!!!!!!!!
And, you know, we here at Pick and Pop try to keep it as fresh and quirky as possible. So, my plan for the next 32 (or some odd) days is to not break down how a team will do. That’s for sportswriters with degrees and such, although I guess a night before the season tips off Colin and I will do something like that.
Instead, I’m giving every single player in the league, even some guys that won’t even make the roster, a little ink. Because not all players are created (and adored) equally by yours truly, some will have much longer anecdotes/analysis or what have you than others. Case and point: would it be fair to give Dirk Nowitzki and Adam Morrison the same amount of space? I haven’t gotten that far yet, but I’m willing to bet I won’t do that.
I guess to make sure the pecking order of the NBA isn’t completely ruined, I’m going to go in ascending order in terms of how I predict the teams will finish. While we’re still in the bottom tier, I think we’re starting to get to the point where real basketball teams start showing up. Next stop: the New York Knicks.
Star
"Sorry man, but 'David Lee Doin' Work' just doesn't sound as good." Photo by David Dow/Getty Images
What does it say about your franchise’s commitment to winning when they sign their best player to a one-year deal? I know you’re expecting me to say something smart like, “It says they don’t give a %$#!”, but I think the answer at this point is a nice, ambiguous, safe ”I don’t know”. While this team won’t be awful by any stretch of the imagination (under .500, yes, but not awful), the Lee and Robinson signings indicate to me that how the team performs this season is secondary to the ultimate goal: clearing enough cap space for ‘Bron to come to the Big Apple. So, Mr. Lee, while you’re a very good player, a double-double machine and a blue collar athlete, you’re auditioning for a role next season alongside James or Dwyane Wade. And, if the Knicks get neither one? Well, maybe then you’ll get the long-term deal you ultimately deserve. And, if not? Then someone will pay you.
The Other Starters
Very quietly, Harrington topped 20 points per game for the first time in his NBA career. My question is, with such a diverse skill set offensively, what the hell took him so long? I look for him to repeat that feat this season, because of two special words that every athlete lives for: CONTRACT YEAR! Unfortunately, no contract year is going to help him defensively.
I love that they have the NBA Draft at MSG every year, because you don’t have to wait until somebody writes a column to know how New Yorkers feel about their team’s draft pick. But, if you sit down and think about their past couple of drafts, their picks have panned out fairly well. We all know about Lee and Nate Robinson, but Chandler was a player most NBA GMs pegged as an early second round guy. And now? Albeit on the Knicks, he’s generated quite a buzz with his nice all-around game. I know after this season the roster’s going to be sliced and diced, but if I were New York I’d want to grow with this kid on my roster.
Talent-wise, Hughes is a very good two-guard. While he was with the Wizards, at his peak, I remember him and Gilbert Arenas basically being option 1 and 1A. That’s how good he was, and from time to time he’ll even let you know how good he still is. Unfortunately, and this may be the understatement of the decade, he makes T-Mac look like Cal Ripken, Jr. Some guys just can’t stay healthy. Here’s hoping that he can play at a high level for at least 70 games. After all, it is a CONTRACT YEAR!
I mentioned the term “cosmetic starter” in reference to Damien Wilkins last time out. Duhon is a little better than that, especially judging by the numbers and also by his minutes per game last year. Not too many cosmetic starters play 37 minutes a game. However, Duhon will be a cosmetic starter for two reasons: 1) Robinson is light years better, and 2) the Knicks actually have quality depth at the two spot, so you’ll see less of the Duhon/Robinson combo this year. You can do worse than Duhon as your starting point guard (see, Udrih, Beno), but not much worse.
Bench
Although Robinson keeps that “underdog” chip firmly glued to his shoulder, and although fans absolutely love his reckless abandon, he is a coach’s nightmare. He unofficially led the league last year in bad shots, after-basket celebrations, and “no, no…YES!” plays. More or less, he’s everything that’s wrong with young basketball players. And the funny thing is he’s probably one of my favorite players to watch.
Why people are calling him a bust after only one year in the NBA I can’t understand. He was hurt most of last year with the Cherot Syndrome (his back for those not up one my chronic injury history), and when he did play, he shot the ball extremely well while also hustling up and down the floor. If that’s what a bust is, fine. We’ll learn more about how good he really is this season, because my gut tells me that Gallinari will get more than 20 minutes a game this year.
I don’t do this very often, but heregoes: I was completely wrong about Darko. Completely. Do you realize that if the Pistons had taken Carmelo Anthony like they were supposed to Chauncey Billups and Co. might have had a fistful of rings? Hindsight is great. On the bright side, seven footers don’t grow on trees, and at 24, he does still have time to carve out a decent NBA career. But, as of now, I’m giving up hope of him ever living up to the second pick in the draft that saved the NBA.
I was going to write my own scathing words for Jeffries, but instead I found better ones from ESPN.com’s 2010 Fantasy Outlook:
Maybe it doesn’t need to be said anymore, but sometimes people need to be reminded: Jared Jeffries is one of the worst players in the league. He happens to have a contract that will pay him more than $13 million dollars over the next two seasons, so you’ll still see him around, providing useless minutes and stealing playing time away from Danilo Gallinari and Jordan Hill. Once in a while, he might block a shot or something, but you should ignore that. Pretty soon, he’ll probably be traded away or bought out as a sunk cost, and then you won’t have to remember not to draft him anymore.
What’s cooler than cold? Ice cold.
You know me. I can go in a lot of different directions with him, but allow me to play devil’s advocate: he’s been through a lot in the past year. His ex-girlfriend and daughter were murdered; his former limo driver sued him; he fell out of the rotation, and he gained a bunch of weight. But, apparently he’s lost weight and he’s trying to get his mind focused back on basketball. I actually think there’s a chance he may end up not only starting again, but having a redemption year.
I actually think this was a very solid pick by the Knicks, who lack size and toughness down low. It wasn’t the sexy pick that New York fans wanted, but mark my words (or ignore them because I was wrong about Darko): by the end of his career Hill will turn out to be one of the better players in this draft. He’ll get spot minutes this year, but next year expect him to put in work.
He’ll start the season fairly low on the depth chart, but about midway through the season D’Antoni will realize that they scored again with a late first round pick. I see him being a very good combo guard in the NBA.
I think the Celtics gave up on Pruitt too early. Yes, he’s Justin Cherot skinny, and yes, sometimes he makes Justin Cherot-like decisions with the ball, but he’s a fairly athletic point guard with good size and a pretty good stroke (okay Jay-Z, sometimes numbers do lie). It’s a shame that he won’t see the light of day even on the Knicks, but there’s hope he’ll break into some team’s rotation somewhere down the road.
All I really know about Sun Yue is that 1) he was a pretty good player on China’s national team, and 2) some diehard Lakers’ fan absolutely abused me with him in the 4th quarter of an NBA Live game last season (don’t forget to cop that on the Tuesday, and no, EA is not paying me to say that).
Serious question: if GMs can take a chance on Crawford, why won’t they take a chance on Mike Jones? Essentially they’re the same player, except Jones is ten times more athletic.
Even at Michigan I don’t remember ever seeing him play. However, while searching for video highlights of him on YouTube I stumbled upon this pretty funny Chris Kaman highlight film. Turns out he can really shoot.
Allan Houston, Cuttino Mobley. Cuttino Mobley, Allan Houston.
NBA Preview Archives
30. Sacramento Kings
29. New Jersey Nets
28. Milwaukee Bucks
Week 4 Picks
By Justin Cherot
I’m a positive person.
Despite last week’s horrendous performance where I had three teams lose in the last two minutes and a couple of other questionable picks (never again, Oakland, never again), I remain a very solid 36-12 this season. I hope to get back on the winning track this week despite some very good match-ups.
Since I’m sleepy and I need to take drugs to numb my ailing back, I’ll keep this one short and sweet. Winners are in bold.
Baltimore at New England
Tampa Bay at Washington
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Oakland at Houston
Detroit at Chicago
Cincinatti at Cleveland
Seattle at Indianapolis
New York Giants at Kansas City
New York Jets at New Orleans
Buffalo at Miami
Dallas at Denver
St. Louis at San Francisco
San Diego at Pittsburgh
Green Bay at Minnesota
Entries- Shorter, More Concise But Nonetheless Still Cool NBA Preview Wrap-Up
- A Pop Culture Break
- A Blog Sabbatical is Not Recommended
- Long, Drawn Out But Very Personable NBA Previews: Golden State Warriors
- Long, Drawn Out But Very Personable NBA Previews: Indiana Pacers
- Long, Drawn Out But Very Personable NBA Previews: Charlotte Bobcats
- Long, Drawn Out But Very Personable NBA Previews: Houston Rockets
- Long, Drawn Out But Very Personable NBA Previews: Oklahoma City Thunder
- Long, Drawn Out But Very Personable NBA Previews: New York Knicks
- Week 4 Picks
